Villain is Keith Sexton, who is a huge nit when it comes to Stud8. I really can not recall a time when I've seen him bluff, and I have ~2k hands with him. I was wondering when he raised if I had the right price to call to try and fill, knowing that I almost always get a c/r on 7th if I do improve.

Thoughts?


Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Stud Hi/Lo $1 Ante - 2 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

3rd Street: (0.4 SB)
Seat 4: xx xx 5____Seat 4 brings in for $1.50____Seat 4 calls
Hero: 6 A A___Hero completes

4th Street: (2.4 SB) (2 players)
Seat 4: xx xx 5 8____Seat 4 calls
Hero: 6 A A 3___Hero bets

5th Street: (2.2 BB) (2 players)
Seat 4: xx xx 5 8 9____Seat 4 calls
Hero: 6 A A 3 3___Hero bets

6th Street: (4.2 BB) (2 players)
Seat 4: xx xx 5 8 9 K____Seat 4 raises
Hero: 6 A A 3 3 J___Hero bets

From the information provided, I assume villain has the flush and will lead the river 100% of the time. There are 4/(42-2) cards in the deck that can help you. Since we have Ac and 3c, we know for a fact that villain has 2 random clubs in his hand. Assuming you hit your 4 outter on the river, a checkraise would help you win an implied pot of 10.2 big bets. However, since villain's range also consists of a low draw and can redraw to half the pot when we do hit our boat, this hand is imo a fold.

I don't know villain's opening range at all. How often he protects 3 flush, if he r/r an ace with 3 baby flushes, etc... That probably helps.

It's obviously very player dependent since it is a HU hand.

He could be protecting a ton of hands. I just feel like 67 or 2 clubs raises 4th street cuz he's smart enough to know that you're raising any 3 in this spot. But if he's that nitty then it's probably just a fold on 6th.

I just feel that big draws raise on 4th, 1 pair hands fold 5th, it's also pretty bad for him to call low draws non straight making low draws because you can have a better low draw. I mean I think all you beat is like 64 or 74 with 1 club. But just toss

If he has two clubs down, then there are 42 unknown cards, four of which give you a full house. You have both the Ace and the Trey of clubs, so he can't have your full house blocked if he indeed has the flush. That's 9.5:1 against you. You're getting 7+:1, so even if you collect two bets on the river every time, you aren't quite getting the odds.

If there's a decent chance that he doesn't have it, though, you have to look him up. It's probably not worth it against this guy.

if you didnt bet on sixth you wouldnt have this dilemma. you know how he plays yet bet into what is most likely a flush or straight or even wired up. get your hands and your mind working in unison.
you could check fold here.

I think this is far from obvious.

Villain is described as straightforward. I can't believe a straightforward villain would flat a made straight on 5th, then wait until 6th to raise. Why not get more value immediately?

Similarly, it's hard to put villain on a flush when 3rd went bringin-call. I expect someone with 3 low cards to a flush to bringin and reraise, even often bringin and reraise with 2 low cards and a 3-flush.

Considering these factors, just looking at villain's board (before betting), I think flush or straight is a very rare holding for him, and he more likely has a low draw or 2 pair. He's gotta be a super-nit not to semibluff 3rd or 4th here with a 4-flush or 4-straight; even tight villains I've faced will semibluff there.

As for what to do when facing the 6th street raise, if villain really is intelligent, he may be raising for a free card with a 4-flush. With the dead money in the pot, I'm not ready to give this hand up yet. Call 6th and check 7th. I'm probably not good enough to fold to a bet on 7th unimproved though that may be optimal.

It's not very rare for him to have a flush. 2 babies and 3 suited would play it the same. A lot of players don't raise 4th because it looks like a huge hand like a flush low draw, straight draw or a set

I think 67 should raise 4th so you gain fold equity when you bink clubs.

How do you raise for a free card?? Did I read this wrong? Is it 8-card stud 8 or better?? Also how do you call 6th and then fold 7th? I don't understand what changes on 7th. It's been shown ITT that calling to hit a boat is not profitable.

The only real 2 pair hand he can have that he is raising for a free showdown is 85.

I dont agree with Ray Zee either and just say its a check on 6th. Bet/fold is by far superior to anything IMO. If not bet/fold its def a check fold. If people want to exploit me by raising 6th everytime i have a paired board and brick on 6th thats fine.

you guys are playing the clouds. and not the player. no way is he raising against ace, three or ace, three, three. no way unless he has a monster. and hero cannot beat a monster. and when checked to on sixth he wont bet without beating trip threes.
so the correct play since that was a bad card for hero is to check fold. this i am sure of.

Want to keep this one too.

What is the default 6th and 7th street plan against unknown or more stakes standard player?

bet

wat?

most players will ditch this hand on 5th, so since he called you arent facing just a low draw.

Did anyone else play against Keith when these games ran? All I remember about him is he was the tightest player of all time in stud8.

There was a point where he would not play me hu, then I spewed it off three handed like 4 hands in a row and after that he always gave me action, which proved to be +ev. He also would take a break say he was coming back soon and then never come back, and this only happened when he was wining.

when i played with him in higher staked games years back he played tight and made his money from those giving it away. worked for him. he was always a gentleman and played well and was good for the game.