8 handed HOE

Hero has [JdTd]Qd
Villian 1 has 2d and brings in, thinking player who steams
Villian 2 has Ts and calls, weak player all around
9d in the muck, a Q mucks
Hero raises with the somewhat live (two diamonds are gone, and one straight possibility, another Q mucks) straight-flush repping split queens, and getting value in against the T. The 2, re-raises, call, call. My hope that the T might get out does not seem to be happening, though I don't mind it terribly. I suspect the 2 may have 3 to a straight, wired aces or wired kings, rolled up trips, or three to a flush with three lows, (no aces or kings out, so seems most likely holding). I can safely ignore the possibility of a split pair, or a wired pair of Queens or lower. I place V2 on a likely split pair of tens, weak wired pair, or three to a flush, maybe even three to broadway with some loopholes in it, or otherwise raggedy straight, though I can safely remove ace-rag as I don't think he was THAT bad of a player, but in Omaha saw some serious cheese. I think most likely split tens. Low cards are somewhat deader than usual.

4th street.
7s for V1, 8h for V2, and 9h for H (bringing a four straight)

H bets, V1 raises, V2 calls, H calls.

5th street
V2 has only about 3.5 BB left.

V1 catches a 7, and bets. V2 catches an offsuit 6, and H makes the straight with an 8.

V1 bets, V2 calls, H raises, V1 3 bets.

V2 calls (I think desperation with split tens, but who knows)

H re-raises (made straight looks good against aces-up, which seems entirely plausible given the action.

V1 re-raises (do I think he's full at this point, and call down, or do I think he has three sevens with three to a flush here? Or do I think it's three ducks with walking sticks? Or is he steaming with Aces Up) The sevens do not match the suit of his door card.

V2 calls

H ??? decides to 4bet intending to muck to a 5bet

V1 5bets, V2 calls (who the hell knows)

H mucks straight.

I am 100% sure my steam engine will 5bet with steam boat, so fold is clear, which made the 4bet/fold line easier. A smarter player may have just called 4 bet, and wait until 6th to raise again. But should I have slowed down on 5th street sooner?

Your straight is fairly well disguised, I'm not sure we can 4b!/fold 5th without much stronger reads

I also don't really like raising preflop with so many good cards for us dead, limping seems better and folding might be best

I think the clue was in his raise on 4th street.

Only 3 of 17 cards for the straight or flush are dead. That's still 14, and there are pair draws as well, 5 of them make a Q or J. This hand is somewhat live.

That was the point of making it 4. It may have been cheaper to simply turn my cards face up and see how he reacts, lol.

It would probably have been superior to call down rather than getting a bunch of bets in and then folding.

You would at least then see a showdown but for the same investment or less.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

On 3rd St.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd	38.24%	169,074	289,036	907	0	0
XX	2d	33.87%	126,273	143,075	130	163,523	161
T9-,TJ+,99-	Ts	27.89%	116,013	166,956	829	59,804	161

My raise has some equity. Folding would be a mistake.

Looking at some stats on 5th street, I am actually a 52-48 dog to trip sevens with an Ad in it, and a 3-1 favorite over AA,KK, so there is some value to finding out on 5th. I did not realize that I would be a dog to trips there. This particular opponent would only re-raise 3rd with Ad7d2d, and still have a seven.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd9h8c	60.18%	342,063	380,150	0	0	0
AA,KK,Ad7d,22	2d7c7h	39.82%	219,850	219,850	0	38,386	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd9h8c	74.58%	425,706	469,250	0	0	0
AA,KK	2d7c7h	25.42%	130,750	130,750	0	43,544	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd9h8c	48.10%	247,671	329,526	0	0	0
Ad7d	2d7c7h	51.90%	270,474	270,474	0	87,337	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd9h8c	0.24%	1,468	1,468	0	0	0
22	2d7c7h	99.76%	598,532	598,532	0	0	0

An expert would re-raise with trip sevens as well as a boat (which this person is not).

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-

Hand	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd9h8c	11.68%	60,295	79,875	0	0	0
22,Ad7d	2d7c7h	88.32%	520,125	520,125	0	20,899	0

Calling down seems correct mathematically without a strong read on how the opponent plays.

What am I missing? Villain should happily jam any razz hand three ways here

On 5th:

An 85 in the hole in a 3 way pot for high has only 29% equity, and when he's all in, it's 37% to 63%, so not advantageous on 5th, though advantageous on 3rd, and 4th.

Do you think you can safely exclude 77 and 27 ITH?

I thought I could safely exclude, but looking at the equity calculator, the 77 in the hole, or the 27 has nearly 40% equity, which was a surprise to me, tbh. I still do not think this particular opponent would re-raise here from my observation. But, it would not be a bad play. 42% equity if I have the split queens. Though you can get into rough spots with lower two-pairs, which is why it does not seem like an obvious play to me.

He can't have a made low yet because he paired his 7

Not sure what you are talking about I can't seem to run a sim where the low draw doesn't have around 35% against two high hands here. If he knows the third guy won't fold it's an easy jam

Yes, DD, you are correct, on 3rd it's a raising hand for the 2 with razz hands

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 9Q654

Hole Cards	Board	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JdTd	Qd	34.66%	110,135	305,197	845	0	0
85	2d	40.04%	102,262	113,839	42	310,703	257
T9-,TJ+,99-	Ts	25.30%	80,021	180,090	861	50,753	257

I'm saying on fifth street.

V2 is all-in.

One of my favorite things in Stud 8 is jamming a low equity hand into a high board, then having the high board fold after putting in a bunch of money. Just great. Like petting a kitten.

As Hero I'm never jamming this hand into a paired board that seems intent on driving the action. But once a bunch of bets go in I'm also never folding.

That's not at all clear from your first post. You said V2 called the 5 bet on fifth.

I don't raise Third and I'm definitely not folding here.

Don't fold big hands in big pots in limit poker imo.

Also from your reads I feel like you are describing a stud high only hand. You said this was Stud 8.

And on 3rd street why are you trying to rep a pair of queens when 2 other queens are dead?

Pretty much the secret to poker.

ive played a lot of years and cant think of many or even any players that 4 bet fold in poker having money long term. for many reasons. one of which is being wrong is too costly and two if seen doing it now you become the bluff target and lose the ability to play well.