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Old 05-08-2017, 06:26 PM   #1
LUCIUS VARENUS
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2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Poker Stars $10+$1 Limit Stud Hi/Lo Tournament - t700/t1400 Limit + t140 - 8 players - View hand 3060877
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Seat 1: t12980 M = 5.98
Seat 2: t23503 M = 10.83
Seat 3: t37521 M = 17.29
Hero (): t11800 M = 5.44
Seat 5: t8935 M = 4.12
Seat 6: t44687 M = 20.59
Seat 7: t15580 M = 7.18
Seat 8: t8696 M = 4.01

3rd Street: (1.6 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 ____Seat 1 brings in for $210
Seat 2: xx xx J ____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 7 ____Seat 3 folds
Hero: 4 5 9 ___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 3 ____Seat 5 folds
Seat 6: xx xx J ____Seat 6 folds
Seat 7: xx xx 5 ____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx J ____Seat 8 calls

4th Street: (2.5 SB) (3 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 2 ____Seat 1 checks____Seat 1 calls
Hero: 4 5 9 6 ___Hero bets
Seat 8: xx xx J A ____Seat 8 folds

5th Street: (2.25 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 2 2 ____Seat 1 bets____Seat 1 calls
Hero: 4 5 9 6 K ___Hero raises

6th Street: (6.25 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 2 2 2 ____Seat 1 bets
Hero: 4 5 9 6 K 3 ___Hero calls

7th Street: (8.25 BB) (2 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 2 2 2 xx____Seat 1 bets

Thoughts on 3rd street play?

Seems to be no question about the play on 4th. Thoughts on 5th?

Was I mathematically incorrect to call to get half the pot on 6th?

I typed in the chat on river, "Sklansky says check." What do you think about Seat 1's river bet?

The way I figured out whether to call or not was to take the pot odds, 10150/1400, or 7.25 to 1, and then half them to 3.625. I then tried to figure out how many outs I had. I said to myself, I have at least 14 outs to get my money back, figuring I definitely have more than a 3 to 1 shot at making my low.

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 05-08-2017 at 06:32 PM.
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Old 05-09-2017, 10:01 AM   #2
AllInNTheDark
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
Thoughts on 3rd street play?

Seems to be no question about the play on 4th. Thoughts on 5th?

Was I mathematically incorrect to call to get half the pot on 6th?

I typed in the chat on river, "Sklansky says check." What do you think about Seat 1's river bet?

The way I figured out whether to call or not was to take the pot odds, 10150/1400, or 7.25 to 1, and then half them to 3.625. I then tried to figure out how many outs I had. I said to myself, I have at least 14 outs to get my money back, figuring I definitely have more than a 3 to 1 shot at making my low.
I'm no expert, but...

3rd for only BI seems ok, esp. since only one other heart up

5th seems marginal, would help to have a read... would you have folded to reraise?

I think you were "mathematically correct" to call on 6th, but:

* that's mainly because of your raise on 5th
* I don't believe your calculations are correct (I get 3.125 to 1 & 10/35 outs for low)
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Old 05-09-2017, 10:04 AM   #3
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Based on the check on 4th i deduced that he did not have a full house on 5th street and would have at least called a raise, possibly reraised because I think i have the best hand.

Raise on 5th is purely for value.
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Old 05-09-2017, 10:12 AM   #4
AllInNTheDark
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Based on the check on 4th i deduced that he did not have a full house on 5th street and would have at least called a raise, possibly reraised because I think i have the best hand.

Raise on 5th is purely for value.
Makes sense, unless you have read that he plays lot of hidden high pairs or low pairs with another low.
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Old 05-09-2017, 11:27 PM   #5
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

It can't be good to fold 6th here can it?
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Old 05-10-2017, 03:20 AM   #6
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Originally Posted by Go Get It View Post
It can't be good to fold 6th here can it?
Well, I can't scoop the pot, so if we go by the adage, "if you know you can't scoop, get out", it might be right to fold.

On the other hand, my hand might have enough equity to call based on the pot odds being laid, such that if I were to fold I would actually be losing more than if I called.

As it turns out, I ran it in PPT, and it says my equity is around or even worse than 15%, meaning that if I do call, I would have saved/made more chips by folding.
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Old 05-10-2017, 06:02 AM   #7
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Don't raise 5th, even if you have a tiny equity advantage (which is not at all clear considering villain can still end up with winning lo) it doesn't make sense considering your stack, you want to have some chips left over if you lose

I would like a raise a lot more on 6th if he hits 9tjqk which is unlikely to connect with his hole cards

Also just fold 3rd is better imo

Whether to call 6 is pure math, how many outs do you think you have given villain's likely holding - 8.5?

Last edited by monikrazy; 05-10-2017 at 06:15 AM.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:51 PM   #8
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Is it really that small an advantage? Surely i have 65%+?

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Old 05-10-2017, 11:06 PM   #9
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Just ran the numbers, its more like 60/40, but when he has at least a full house you have only 5-7% equity
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:11 AM   #10
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

IMO tis significant as well that he was the bring-in and did not call a completion, so is likely to have a much wider range than normal.
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:53 PM   #11
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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IMO tis significant as well that he was the bring-in and did not call a completion, so is likely to have a much wider range than normal.

Yes, and did not lead or cr 4th which he normally would with 2 pair. If his range was any 2 cards you would have ~58% equity but after adjusting it a bit better. Still think a call is probably better for tourny reasons - there is a better argument for raising cash.
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Old 05-12-2017, 03:13 AM   #12
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Villain's 7th street bet is bad if he can assume competent opponents, but I wouldn't assume this in a $10 buyin tournament. I used to play against people who didn't even know the rules; someone might call with a "9 low" or do something else equally ridiculous.
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Old 05-12-2017, 04:47 AM   #13
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Villain's 7th street bet is bad if he can assume competent opponents, but I wouldn't assume this in a $10 buyin tournament. I used to play against people who didn't even know the rules; someone might call with a "9 low" or do something else equally ridiculous.
I think you can argue that the bet is even better against world class opposition since you SO SO rarely lose and can avoid showdown when you scoop.
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Old 05-12-2017, 05:17 AM   #14
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips View Post
I think you can argue that the bet is even better against world class opposition since you SO SO rarely lose and can avoid showdown when you scoop.
I suppose there was some value in this hand from the villain's POV in not letting me confirm my strong suspicion that he did not have a full house on 5th street.
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Old 05-12-2017, 05:22 AM   #15
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

On the other hand, this is only a tournament, and I am unlikely to play against this person for very long and neither are my other opponents. It's a one off event, being a SCOOP, and so there is relatively less value in blocking reads, particularly when most players in the tournament are probably not paying that much attention!
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:05 AM   #16
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Why is quads supposed to check?

And fold 3rd imo
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:20 AM   #17
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Why is quads supposed to check?

If you're the one with quads, the other guy knows exactly what you have, so they'll never fold better or call with worse.
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:59 AM   #18
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

hmm
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:42 PM   #19
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

I have seen people call open pairs in Stud with obvious losing hands - I have no idea why. I doubt anyone would call quads with worse but you never know. I assume he was so excited to have quads that he couldn't help himself. I really hope you actually had the 3 and made a straight flush on the river
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:42 PM   #20
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

By the way, why did you say "Sklanksy says check"?
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:57 PM   #21
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Originally Posted by Small Balls View Post
By the way, why did you say "Sklanksy says check"?
I'm not the OP, but in one of 2+2's older books it mentions that betting 7th street with open quads is a bad play.
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Old 05-13-2017, 08:56 PM   #22
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

yea...i was thinking the odds of someone misreading your hand/being drunk are higher than getting raised by a better hand but i'm sure i'm wrong
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:47 PM   #23
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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I'm not the OP, but in one of 2+2's older books it mentions that betting 7th street with open quads is a bad play.
I know why Skalnsky says check, but I don't know why OP said it. Realistically it will probably make no difference, but I don't see any positive to giving free advice.
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Old 05-15-2017, 12:05 PM   #24
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

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Originally Posted by Small Balls View Post
I know why Skalnsky says check, but I don't know why OP said it. Realistically it will probably make no difference, but I don't see any positive to giving free advice.
It was a joke because of the absurdity of the situation.
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Old 05-16-2017, 12:10 PM   #25
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Re: 2017 SCOOP-09-L $11 HORSE Stud 8 - Flush in 5, low draw in 6, facing open quads!

Fair enough!
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