Okay, if you don't think he is the type to barrel off 6th+7th as a bluff, then a significant amount of value in the c/c line goes out the window I suppose. Math is intimidating and I'm not good at it, but I think this is a solveable spot so I'll give it a shot.

We will assume he started with a 3 card 8.

Let's first look at b/f line.

Leading just doesn't make sense. Nothing has changed since 6th street except that we now beat a 7, which he would bet for us anyways. You wouldn't lead the 8 here would you?

Here's Raymer with a strong range vs our hand:

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 8722

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
a23478j	55.42%	332,506	0
(7-6-25)6Q*	44.58%	267,494	0

Here's Raymer with a wide range:

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 8722

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
a23478j	67.30%	403,828	0
(7-7-2)56Q*	32.70%	196,172	0

Here's Raymer with a nutty range:

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 8722

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
a23478j	41.40%	248,393	0
(6-4-25)6Q*	58.60%	351,607	0

Even vs his strongest sub-range we've got >40% equity. A lot more of Raymer's range is decent hands we beat than awful hands or awesome hands, ie a calling range, and we should be value betting the river.

Well that's why I ask, would you be leading an 8 also? Maybe it would be correct in order to get value from his rough 8s 9s and Ts. My point is that if you're leading a 7 you should also be leading an 8 because you beat the same hands. The rough 7 part of his range is irrelevant because a bet will go in regardless of whether we check or lead.

I disagree with your sim of his "wide range". The 5 needs to be inside the parentheses (he's not calling for RR there on 5th) and you could widen his starting range to 8-8- for sure.

It's level-y but if Hero has a smooth Eight he can bet the river and not get raised often because his Sixth street looks like he has an Eight with a good draw (to 64 say). He can get called because he might also have a smooth 8 draw with a pair of Fours on the presumption Raymer paired the Six and be bluffing a brick.

Yeah, that was an oversight, this is probably closer:

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 8722

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
a23478j	64.32%	385,917	0
(8-7-25)6Q*	35.68%	214,083	0

bet 6th

No.

Where'd the half-finger go?

When Clayton told me this hand, I immediately said lead 7th. Bet/fold, and if Raymer is on the edge of an all-in (which he wasn't) then Bet-3bet.

Reasons:

1) Raymer probably has some idea who Clayton is. At a minimum he knows that Clayton hangs out with the "smart kids". 7x out of 10 Raymer already assumes Clayton has a clue. (Greg kinda confirmed this when CG and I talked with him during dinner break - but this was my assumption already)

2) Greg is a solid Razz player, but he plays a fairly straightforward game, for example he did not raise 5th with what may be a 4 to a 5. On the river Greg checks back an 8 and dirty sevens unless he is tilting (which he rarely does, but he is only human after all). Too early in the session to assume he is tilting in any way, empirical evidence sugests a leading bet is best.

3) Since Greg will play the river straightforward vs Clayton (specifically), there is value in a leading bet, more value that check/calling. Also since Greg will play the river straightforward you can expect him to only raise a 6 or better, allowing Clayton to save a bet by folding. Notice that this is the same net result as check/calling and losing... except that by betting we now get value from hands Greg checks back except his paired hand stone cold bluffs (if he can pull the trigger).

4) Hand is disguised by not 3betting 3rd (by the way, I like how 3rd was played in a tournament format), so your leading bet will be tricky and be very confusing, we like that!

5) Meta. Before Clayton leads the river, he should make sure EVERYONE at the table is looking at him to the best of his ability. This will pay off later if the opportunity should arrise to take advantage of your image again.

Lastly, I'd like to say c/r is the worst of all the options available because we know Greg's river betting range is highly polarized... in fact, bet/3bet is slightly better than c/r. It is super slim, but Greg might be able to find a fold to a bluff 3bet with 23456, and all hands we know we already beat will also fold to a 3bet but at least we are setting a tone at the table for future hands. I don't advocate bet/3bet in this scenario but it does set up future spots where you can lead with the intention of 3betting with ease by increasing the probability you will get paid off due to your image.

PS: I just read the thread right before I clicked submit reply. Use the right tool for the job always. Leading doesn't have to make sense, in fact often just because it doesn't make sense is the reason why we should lead when we can extract value. As usual Electrical kicked ass... but how does he find the time to do it? You should be a busy little beaver right now, don't you have a tour and an upcoming dinner to focus on? And ninefingershuffle, you have got to be trolling with that post, please admit it ;-)

PPS: I know what Greg had if you have a burning desire to know Clayton.

Dinner pfft I make that sh*t up on the fly. Tour completed today, flying home now to spend a bunch of money I just earned on the house, then wife maintenance for 12 hours and off to Vegas.

GL vs the sh*tapes in the weekender.

errrr, I don't think so Bob


Agreed. Leading is fine I guess if you're going to lead an 8 as well. I just think it's funny, most people figure "oh, I binked river. I have to lead!" which is really poor logic. You're relative hand strength is the same as it was on 6th street, so play it the same.

this thread hasn't talked me out of c/r/f the river, though it was close.

Only bracelet winners are baller enough to c/r/f rivers though! The rest of us just look like donks when we do it...

When u hit Vegas remind me about this thread, and you will be very quickly talked out of it.

And whats wrong with looking like a donk? Why do you care what you look like, you should only be worried about taking the line with the best ROI. Donks get paid, I could only hope that I always look like a donk as I sweep in pot after pot.

- TT

Another thought. If I hit a 6 instead of a 7, am I checkraise->4betting or am I just calling the threebet? And how to react if I get 5bet? my initial thought is that I'm just supposed to call the threebet, but then again if Greg is three betting his stronger sixes I don't think he folds to a 4bet against someone under the age of 30...

Results:
I check, Greg throws out a purple chip. I checkraise after about 5 seconds, throwing in four grey chips. Greg insta-says "raise" and throws a grey chip on top of his purple. I fold.

And it's ok TT, I don't have a burning desire to know what Greg had. I don't think I'm playing prelim tournaments next summer so I don't think I'll be playing a razz hand for a few more years :O