Poker Stars $0.04/$0.08 Limit Stud Hi/Lo $0.01 Ante - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (1.25 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx T____Seat 1 folds
Seat 4: xx xx 3____Seat 4 folds
Hero: A 3 2___Hero brings in for $0.02
Seat 7: xx xx J____Seat 7 calls
Seat 8: xx xx J____Seat 8 folds

4th Street: (2.25 SB) (2 players)
Hero: A 3 2 2___Hero bets
Seat 7: xx xx J 3____Seat 7 calls

5th Street: (2.125 BB) (2 players)
Hero: A 3 2 2 4___Hero bets
Seat 7: xx xx J 3 8____Seat 7 calls

6th Street: (4.125 BB) (2 players)
Hero: A 3 2 2 4 A___Hero bets___Hero calls
Seat 7: xx xx J 3 8 A____Seat 7 raises

7th Street: (8.125 BB) (2 players)
Hero: A 3 2 2 4 A 4___Hero checks___Hero calls
Seat 7: xx xx J 3 8 A xx____Seat 7 bets


Am I correct to call the raise even though I strongly suspect he has a flush?

Obviously. You have a million outs to a low, 3 outs to a full house and he doesn't have a flush every time.

The question of can I scoop is in my head and I'm thinking i've only got 3 outs for that and the pot isn't big enough to draw to it?

I was thinking he must have a flush because he's not raising with an 8 low against my board and if he has trips/2 pair then he calls, no?

You asked what to do on 6th w/ your low draw and Aces up. It shouldn't even be a question, tbh, of course you call the raise. You didn't improve otr so you c/c and, win or lose, that's it.

By this time you really have to be able to calculate this, right? Assume he has a flush and no low draw. What is your EV of calling 6th? Or put another way, what is your effective equity?

If you even think 6th is close, why on earth do you call 7th? That makes no sense. Your equity on 6th >>> your equity on 7th

Yeah it was a mistake to call the end

Once you acquire your super powers after being exposed to the radioactive alien space-rock and can see thru the cards you can fold UI otr.

I think the play is okay. card play them self sometimes in this game

I was not advocating folding 7th. Just saying that calling 7th makes zero sense if you think folding 6th is even an option. (Folding 6th is not an option. If he turned over his cards and showed you a flush you should still call. DUCY?)

What sort of equity am I looking at? 20%+? Should I be calling to get half the pot?

Dude, come on. Figure it out!

You have *one dead out* to your low, leaving 19 outs. There are 13 exposed cards, leaving 39 unknown. So you have almost 50% chance to get your low. That gives you 25% equity by itself.

You have 3 outs to the nuts, that is 3/39 or 7.7%

Total is
.5*19/39 + 3/39 = 32%

You're getting 7:1 on a call, all the equity you need to call is 12.5%

If you called 6th and folded 7th unimproved (which you could do only if you knew you were already losing high then:
EV = 3/39*8 + .5*7*19/39 - 1*17/39 = 1.88bb

If you spite-called 7th even knowing you were losing then you'd have
EV = 3/39*8 + .5*7*19/39 - 2*17/39 = 1.44bb
That's right - calling 6th and calling 7th KNOWING YOU'RE BEAT is better than folding 6th - by a lot.

P.S. you probably actually make more than this when you bink your full house because you get to raise

Stud Hi/Lo Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
As3h2s2d4sAd 22.79% 19,603 29,414 0 223,385 2,062
Ac8d3cJcxQc2c 77.21% 345,139 570,586 0 121,666 2,062


meaning you need a little better than 4:1 to make the call.

snap call 6th
fold river in most cases

Please forgive my ignorance but why, when we are calculating our EV do we multiply by 7 and not 8? Like in the calculation before the highlighted one?

Even bigger question . . . How do you come up with 19 outs for the low? I only count 15 low outs. 4 fives, 4 sixes, 4 sevens, and 3 eights. What am I missing?

Yup.
And this.

Not this.

^can I hear the logic? I'll explain mine.

I think from a theoretical viewpoint, the river is probably a call, but even then, very close.

However in my experience,

I don't think I've ever witness anyone turn a hand with showdown into a bluff when the other side is showing xx224a. I don't think it is intuitive for anyone from ultra fish status to grinder-like to turn a high hand with showdown into a bluff. The first reaction is to just get to showdown as cheap as possible.

I also don't think I've ever witness anyone value raise anything worse than a set when the other side is showing xx224a. If they were bad enough to raise 2 pairs then they would have done it on 5th street. Not on 6th street when the other side binks an ace.

However I do think some hands like J2J38Acccc should raise 6th to serve as a bluff. The range is flush a lot and would like to be paid off, so some bluffs are required. However most people in my experience DON'T DO THIS. I have never seen anyone make this play. Either they are too bad to comprehend the purpose or too abc-vanilla to do so. River is always a flush.

Also the ones who do this are usually the maniac who over does this. However my requirement is unknown until proven maniac. And unknowns fall into the general population.

Based on these observations, I think hero's odds to win on the river UI against the general population is clearly < 10%.

to be fair, I didn't realize the stakes was 4c/8c.

I can't really use the experience argument since I dunno how the general population plays at 4c/8c. People are probably more irrational with money at this level since 8 cents is just 8 cents.

My opinion is at 4c/8c it doesn't matter since 8 cents is basically free. The right play is to fold at most stakes imo. At 4c/8c it may very well be a call. I also would pay 8 cents even if I know I'm 100% lost just to see villain's hand. I've had plenty of nights where I couldn't sleep, because I'd replay a hand over and over to justify a lay down in a big pot. 8 cents is well worth a good night sleep.

Your logic makes perfect sense if you have history or a solid read on villain. Vs unknowns, I'm calling river ui and yeah....no sleep lost.

CALL CALL CALL

I am sad that you said that because I hoped you see the bets in terms of betting units rather than their monetary value and real world applications.

I may be a micros player (albeit due to financial constraints in personal life) but I am sure that doing that leads to tilt problems. I am sure you agree.

Sure but the thing is, you can not make people "play right" at the lowest stakes. People get bored and do completely irrational things all the time at play chip and 4c/8c tables. If the player isn't rational then you can't deduce his holdings by rational means.

Looking back at how the cards fell on 6th, you should check-call since you have a decent amount of outs.

The reasoning is that when you bet, you have to call the raise with the number of outs you have and now, if you brick the river and check, when villain bets, you only need to be good for half the pot about 20% of the time you call.

Thus by betting 6th, you are committing 3 big bets, while when you check, you just commit to calling one and can re-evaluate on 7th.(I think in most cases, you still have to call - you only need to be good for half the pot 1/4 of the time, but you save one big bet when you miss)

Limit is about saving/making fraction bets over time, and here you don't extract much value when you hit since it will almost always only give you half the pot.

two problems with this i see

1) i don't know he is going to raise me
2) for all i know he just has a pair of jacks or buried high pair and giving a free card would be missing a bet. that's what people usually have when they have a high door card.

Of course you don't know he's going to raise. That's not the point.

The A did one of 3 things for him, made him a flush (or less likely a better Aces up than yours) or somehow improved his low equity.

If he made the flush or he has (A, J) in the hole, my prior point holds. You're playing for half the pot. If you already had a made low, you'd lead out for value.

If it improved his low equity, you're drawing live to a better low and you don't mind him improving to 2 pair if he has (J, x) in the hole. In the latter case you can probably extract another bet OTR because he won't fold 2 pair to what will look like a low trying to steal the high end.

I might be guilty of incorrectly conflating LHE tactics here, but the old adage in LHE is OTT, check mid-value hands that have outs and bet mid-value hands that don't. This looks like a similar situation.

FWIW, I won't mind if Ray weighs in and slaps me silly if my thinking is wrong.