Whole Stack Risk Analysis Tournament Poker
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4
Players pay a 10% rake to house. Top 10% of entries place in tournament.
If Players risks whole stack on a 50% win chance. My math tells me I can risk my whole stack 3.18 times per tournament and expect to break even. I was wondering if anybody would confirm or correct me. This is a simple game breakdown analysis.
Player take a coin flip on average
Player needs to place in 11% of tournaments played.
Average payout per player that places is 10% of total pot
".5^3.18=11.03%"
Player then places in 11.03% of tournaments played
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 12,894
Haven't bothered checking calculations, not really sure what the point of it is tbh. It takes no account of factors like the tournament structure and prize distribution, and unless I've misread then 10% average prize and 10% players paid seems to assume that the field size is exactly 100 players.
Also, look at how you're building stacks in non all-in hands so that you're not the one risking their stack. Obviously sometimes you will get it in worse than a coinflip because pot odds, but mostly you want to play your biggest pots with your best hands, and the better the structure the more you should be able to do so.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,986
Math is correct for the given assumptions- e.g. player only goes all-in with 50% win probability.
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 4
Thanks for the confirmation
