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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

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Old 05-08-2017, 03:09 PM   #1
Leia Amidala
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Strange results HRC, need checkup

I found something very strange using HRC. Situation is as follows:

9 handed. 200/400/40. Everyone 4000 stacks.

MP shoves 25.5%, 22+ A2s+ A5o+ K9s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ T8s+ 98s 87s

Now HRC, lets the bigblind call with 21.6%.

I checked A7o. HRC says its +0.45. Which is pretty big.

Ev(call with A70) = Pwin * ( 4000 + 200 + 360 - 80 ) + Ploose * ( -3560 )

Pwin = 44.1%
ploose = 55.9%

ev = 1975 - 1990 = -15 Chips.

I must be missing something really stupid, do you guys see it?
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Old 05-09-2017, 05:03 AM   #2
Leia Amidala
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

No opinions?
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Old 05-09-2017, 06:32 AM   #3
rvrrr
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

I think it's because HRC also takes ties into account (which will happen 9% of the time here).
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:12 AM   #4
spand42
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

If villain is really shoving that wide then I can believe that A7o is a call.

In reality I don't think most villains will be that wide.

Also don't forget that just because it's +chip EV doesn't mean that it's +EV for your tourney. It is probably correct to fold when the profit is only +0.41
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:57 AM   #5
LektorAJ
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

Before I tell you the problem I want you to recognise that the root of the mistake is the hellishly complicated way you've set out to do this calculation.

The specific problem is that while you correctly don't count your BB and you own ante in the amount you now have to call - that money doesn't just disappear you forget to include it in money you could potentially win along with the SB and antes from other players.

Ev(call with A70) = Pwin * ( 4000 + 400 + 200 + 360 - 40 ) + Ploose * ( -3560 )

(the -40 is not to double count villain's ante which is already included in his full 4000 stack).

A much easier way of doing calculations is this:

Ev(call) = Pwin *(size of pot won) - SizeOfCall

If your equity in the pot is worth more than you pay to get that equity, you should make the call. The size of the pot won is (effective stack x 2) + (dead money from other players)

Ev(call) = Pwin * (4000+4000+280+200) - 3560

= (0.441*8480) - 3560

= 3740 - 3560 = 180 = 0.45% of your stack.
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:17 AM   #6
Leia Amidala
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

that does not seem to be correct lektor. If the sb and bb have 4000 chips (before start of hand) how can i win his whole stack (4000) and my own bb (400). that 400 is included in the 4000 i am about to win. or not?

Last edited by Leia Amidala; 05-10-2017 at 09:26 AM.
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:28 AM   #7
LektorAJ
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

No - the 400 is "from you" in the sense that it's a blind he has to match so he is putting in 4000 (ignoring the ante for now) but it's also dead money in that it's gone if you fold and it's potential winnings if you call so it counts as part of your net win relative to folding.

Your potential net win relative to folding is his entire stack he's just put in, the antes from all players, the SB and the BB. (it's personal preference where you count his ante but don't double cout it)
Your potential net loss relative to folding is the 3560 you have in front of you.

Like I said in the second half of the post though, though don't do it that counter-intuitive way.

Just work out how much your equity share of the total all-in pot is worth and how much you're expected to pay to have that equity.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:23 PM   #8
Leia Amidala
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Re: Strange results HRC, need checkup

LectorAJ, you are absolutely right Thanks for your very clear reply!
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