Quote:
Originally Posted by 0112358132134
How common and big are downswings in 45 man MTT's?
They are pretty common and nearly everybody underestimates how often they happen.
If we call a
50% chance of seeing a downswing common then it works out for 45's
with a 10% roi you see a downswing of:
i)62BI's (seen in 50% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)81BI's (seen in 50% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)109BI's (seen in 50% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)130BI's (seen in 50% of each 10000 45 seat game block)
If you want to see how often to expect uncommon downswings, let's call a 5% chance of seeing a swing ie, 1 in 20, uncommon,
for 10% roi they happen
i)120BI's (seen in 5% of each 1000 45 seat game block)
ii)150BI's (seen in 5% of each 2000 45 seat game block)
iii)190BI's (seen in 5% of each 5000 45 seat game block)
iv)220BI's (seen in 5% of each 10000 45 seat game block)
As there are 1000's of players in the player pool and maybe still plenty with a 'true' 10% roi perhaps a 1 in 20 isn't really uncommon. Somebody always will get unlucky with a game with a high random nature.
Don't think that bad luck only happens to you it is spread throughout the player pool. Look at the hands you are not involved in and you will see runner-runner events happening to others very often, well as often as they should statistically.