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ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

03-02-2013 , 12:40 PM
thats solid ^ teach me. SN?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-02-2013 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sokz
thats solid ^ teach me. SN?
Ty man, my SN its jorginho88 just like in here
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-02-2013 , 04:00 PM
45 is impressive when playing that amount of tables, i do got some hands on you from 3.5 and 8$, 11/9 shouldnt give you that kind of roi, but perhaps you play looser on 2.5 : O)
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-02-2013 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Livedk
45 is impressive when playing that amount of tables, i do got some hands on you from 3.5 and 8$, 11/9 shouldnt give you that kind of roi, but perhaps you play looser on 2.5 : O)
TY bud
Ive played few from those plus dont have HM to see stats.
I always cash out before having the BR to grind higher, trying to change that tho lol
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2013 , 06:26 PM
62.5% 1419 games at 15$. Gonna be sick high even if I keep 30ish% ROI for the next 2000 games. (12-15 tabling though)

E: I should be higher in the poker economy though, been doing so much other stuff instead of grind. Some HS MTT regs could maybe stomp 180-mans even better.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2013 , 09:07 PM
Solid winrate also in the 3s. Teach me?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-04-2013 , 09:28 PM
got a feeling this thread is a 'not to subtly' hidden brag
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 02:50 AM
Very nice, man.
I'm 2,246 games at 16.2%.. during my heaters I'm 28 tabling and during coolers 21 tabling.

Darsolation on Skype if you want to chat.

I still feel I've got lots to learn but my game is getting stronger every week, I have great coaches.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darsolation
Very nice, man.
I'm 2,246 games at 16.2%.. during my heaters I'm 28 tabling and during coolers 21 tabling.
Darsolation on Skype if you want to chat.

I still feel I've got lots to learn but my game is getting stronger every week, I have great coaches.

That sounds like a mental problem. It's almost saying like, when I run great I play better than running awful. Just neglect results and always play 28 tables.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAsnapfold
I used to check my sharkscope everyday.Don't do that is bad.Only look at your stats when on an upswing.That way you can trick your brain that your always winning.
I just did 400BI. downswing at $2.50 180's. Didn't affect me as i didn't look at stats until i was winning.
I'm lost. 400 BI at 2.50s.. Must have to do something with your ROI also I guess?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 06:14 PM
45% is very impressive but it is still a quite small sample really. If you do have a 'true' roi of 45% and nothing changes over the next 3100 games, using a simple Gaussian model you should expect to see your results in the range 27% to 62% with a 90% confidence interval.
You could easily be on a heater for these 3.1k games you have played - some players will be lucky over this amount of games it's hard to judge accurately and this is one of the problems with playing MTTs.
If you played 4x more ie, another 9k games the 90% CI band halves in size to 35% to 55%.

In $2.5 180s on PStars over 40% roi would be a really impressive score and this gets you deep into the 1 in 1000 percentile players at these. I suspect, well guess really, that it is possible to sustain 50% to 75% roi multi-tabling if you are an exceptional player (and such a quality player will obviously play higher) but most new players finding their way should not be too disapointed at all to sustain more like 20 to 30 levels. This looks like it gets you very near to the top 1 in 1000 level in the current game.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 07:05 PM
^^ Good Post.

All the 1000, 2000, 3000 game brags ITT are pretty funny. Seasoned regs can go that stretch of games on a downswing, breakeven stretch, or at > 50% ROI. The variance is truly way way way more volatile than is being made out in here.

As for the 2s, its a good start, but chances are if you are good enough to beat the game for close to what the ceiling true ROI is in these games (whatever that might be), you'll move up well before you have sufficient enough data to make that claim.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 07:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
45% is very impressive but it is still a quite small sample really. If you do have a 'true' roi of 45% and nothing changes over the next 3100 games, using a simple Gaussian model you should expect to see your results in the range 27% to 62% with a 90% confidence interval.
You could easily be on a heater for these 3.1k games you have played - some players will be lucky over this amount of games it's hard to judge accurately and this is one of the problems with playing MTTs.
If you played 4x more ie, another 9k games the 90% CI band halves in size to 35% to 55%.

In $2.5 180s on PStars over 40% roi would be a really impressive score and this gets you deep into the 1 in 1000 percentile players at these. I suspect, well guess really, that it is possible to sustain 50% to 75% roi multi-tabling if you are an exceptional player (and such a quality player will obviously play higher) but most new players finding their way should not be too disapointed at all to sustain more like 20 to 30 levels. This looks like it gets you very near to the top 1 in 1000 level in the current game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aliquantum
^^ Good Post.

All the 1000, 2000, 3000 game brags ITT are pretty funny. Seasoned regs can go that stretch of games on a downswing, breakeven stretch, or at > 50% ROI. The variance is truly way way way more volatile than is being made out in here.

As for the 2s, its a good start, but chances are if you are good enough to beat the game for close to what the ceiling true ROI is in these games (whatever that might be), you'll move up well before you have sufficient enough data to make that claim.
1,000,000 to this. Enough said and close thread
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
45% is very impressive but it is still a quite small sample really. If you do have a 'true' roi of 45% and nothing changes over the next 3100 games, using a simple Gaussian model you should expect to see your results in the range 27% to 62% with a 90% confidence interval.
You could easily be on a heater for these 3.1k games you have played - some players will be lucky over this amount of games it's hard to judge accurately and this is one of the problems with playing MTTs.
If you played 4x more ie, another 9k games the 90% CI band halves in size to 35% to 55%.

In $2.5 180s on PStars over 40% roi would be a really impressive score and this gets you deep into the 1 in 1000 percentile players at these. I suspect, well guess really, that it is possible to sustain 50% to 75% roi multi-tabling if you are an exceptional player (and such a quality player will obviously play higher) but most new players finding their way should not be too disapointed at all to sustain more like 20 to 30 levels. This looks like it gets you very near to the top 1 in 1000 level in the current game.
I agree everything u say. Except the 50+roi number over a larger sample.
I don't think it's sustainable if mass multitable. It's more like 40-45% which is is still outstanding
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2013 , 06:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWard
I agree everything u say. Except the 50+roi number over a larger sample.
I don't think it's sustainable if mass multitable. It's more like 40-45% which is is still outstanding
Well it was a total guess really and by exceptional player I was thinking of a quality professional player, it's hard to know maybe someday one will play 20k games of $2.5 180s and we will find out.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
Well it was a total guess really and by exceptional player I was thinking of a quality professional player, it's hard to know maybe someday one will play 20k games of $2.5 180s and we will find out.
well std deviation dosnt mean a thing either since the game changes in the timespan it takes for someone to play 20k games.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fidstar-poker
got a feeling this thread is a 'not to subtly' hidden brag
Which is a bit like bragging about being the tallest guy in a room full of midgets.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2013 , 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Langerdang
Which is a bit like bragging about being the tallest guy in a room full of midgets.
yo i posted because i wanted to know if this is sustainable or not, not to brag.

but, jealous much?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-07-2013 , 10:47 PM
Not really no. I happen to stand pretty tall in the room full of midgets myself

Like most said, if you want to see if it's sustainable then play more and see if you sustain it. Most move up after making x amount or after x games, then of course there's the suckers like me that don't.

Last edited by Langerdang; 03-07-2013 at 10:55 PM. Reason: i wasn't having a go, just a joke
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fidstar-poker
nice numbers.

I do wish my ROI would increase by 1% every time the question is asked :P
it does because they are too stupid to move up or add more tables
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 02:14 AM
Also no I think logicaly based on playability in these sngs 40% is the cap it might even be lower.

I estimate 99.999% of people who get your roi are running good and once a week when this thread is made I resist trolling but I cant help it today esp after that guy in 180 thread.

Last edited by MoViN.tArGeT; 03-08-2013 at 02:20 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 04:19 AM
those numbers are good and by scoping your overrall results, you seem like a solid player. you should probably be playing higher than that. you shouldn't care or focus at all at your ROI at 2s. use the 2s as a bankroll and knowledge builder and move up to 8s/3rs/15s. you can do it br0.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 08:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
those numbers are good and by scoping your overrall results, you seem like a solid player. you should probably be playing higher than that. you shouldn't care or focus at all at your ROI at 2s. use the 2s as a bankroll and knowledge builder and move up to 8s/3rs/15s. you can do it br0.
ty bro, i know that, but 1+ time, just wanted to know if this is sustainable, cause if it is, is a ****ing gold mine the 2.5s
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoViN.tArGeT
Also no I think logicaly based on playability in these sngs 40% is the cap it might even be lower.
Agree, think it's slightly under 40% too.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-08-2013 , 09:57 PM
ya and this is coming from a guy who runs over 45% in 15's
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote

      
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