Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread)

03-18-2015 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
I dunno, maybe i was just lucky and got into some particularly soft, but check it out guys and see what you think.
If you really think you found some hidden pocket of soft games, spreading the news is a mistake.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-18-2015 , 11:14 AM
So much for being friendly and come with suggestions i suppose

Well, ill keep my mouth shut next time.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-18-2015 , 11:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
So much for being friendly and come with suggestions i suppose

Well, ill keep my mouth shut next time.
Hey, it's up to you. Worth considering that if you advertise a soft format, it won't stay soft long
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-21-2015 , 06:47 PM

Last edited by safalache; 03-21-2015 at 06:51 PM. Reason: picture too small
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-22-2015 , 05:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerocrat
Hey, it's up to you. Worth considering that if you advertise a soft format, it won't stay soft long
And if we help each other play poker better then the games will get harder too. With that attitude there is no reason for any of the threads in mttsng or for this community of players to exist.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-22-2015 , 07:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by safalache
Short answer - yes.
From what is seen - that's about ~1k hands... Hardly more than 20 mtts. Therefore - that's more than normal. You'll be lucky if that's the only variance you'll experience. (also, if it is variance and not a leak in your game...)
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-22-2015 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wisher
Short answer - yes.
From what is seen - that's about ~1k hands... Hardly more than 20 mtts. Therefore - that's more than normal. You'll be lucky if that's the only variance you'll experience. (also, if it is variance and not a leak in your game...)
Those are 731 tournaments.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-22-2015 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
And if we help each other play poker better then the games will get harder too. With that attitude there is no reason for any of the threads in mttsng or for this community of players to exist.
Strangely black and white way to look at it. Many good players contribute strat and provide value as part of the community, but still withhold information in certain areas. You can help players improve while holding onto some secrets.

Kind of extreme to say "share everything or shut the forums down"

Last edited by Beerocrat; 03-22-2015 at 11:35 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-23-2015 , 06:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by safalache
Those are 731 tournaments.
Sorry, got confused by the chips graph that this is chips/hands graph.
On the other hand, if you lose an MTTSNG, the chip graphics goes down with the number of chips you have bought in for.
If you win it - it goes up with the cumulative number of chips in the entire tournament.
So, if you lose 180man tournament (even if you come second) your chip graph will be going down with 1500 chips.
If you win one - your chip graph will go up for 270000 chips. So, if you lose a flip for 1st/2nd when even chips, your graph will go down 1500, while EV will go up with 135000k ...
Probably got lost in what I'm trying to say - this graph isn't indicative of an upswing, downswing or variance.
To be honest, I am not sure that any of the graphs in PT/HEM can show if you are victim of variance/bad luck or just play bad.
Just focus on playing each hand the best possible way and, if in doubt, post for discussion here or on other forums. That's the way to improve.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-23-2015 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerocrat
Strangely black and white way to look at it. Many good players contribute strat and provide value as part of the community, but still withhold information in certain areas. You can help players improve while holding onto some secrets.

Kind of extreme to say "share everything or shut the forums down"
That would be fair if I was criticising someone for not sharing everything - it's up to the person concerned to decide what they do and don't want to share.

I'm just saying I don't see any reason why we would be cautioning someone to withhold a particular class of information on the forum that couldn't equally be applied to any other class of information shared here.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-24-2015 , 05:02 PM
Hey guys. This month i played 0.5$ 180/90/45 players. Usually i open 4 tables, 2 45p, 1 180p and another one 90p. This is the results as today.



What do you think? I'm "running hot" right? I've thought about moving to 1$ 90p and 1.5$ 45p but i'm afraid i'm not that a good player and this is just pure luck. Also 200 tourneys is probably not a good sample. What do you think?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-24-2015 , 05:51 PM
Sample way too small. That said I would move up but be prepared tot move down if you lose like 25 tot 50 BI's.

Keep in mind that the $1 are regular speeds. They might get frustrating if you're used tot turbos
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 03:43 AM
If we are talking about micros just play the biggest games you a properly rolled for. You will get better faster that way and the profit's come in the long run when you become able to play high, not from grinding an extra few cents per tourney now by playing lower than your skill level.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 05:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Little tip for the grinders out there: i recently discovered how soft the 5 dollar 90 mann knockout turbos are compared to other games at similar stakes.

I had avoided those for some time because knockout prizes are not my fav, but when i see how soft the field is in these things i am going to play them more in the future. Compared to for example 3,50 or 7 dollar 45 manns turbos i cant believe how soft the 90 mann turbos are. Many players are just unbeliveable bad.

I dunno, maybe i was just lucky and got into some particularly soft, but check it out guys and see what you think.
congrats, they just got tougher. you do realise that $8 180s are ridic saturated as it is and they have 180 spaces to get enough fish in. the 90s have an even more limited number of spaces so an influx of even a few regs has an extremely adverse affect on your roi. enough regs and the majority wont make an roi worth playing for most of the button clickers. maybe you should twitch and set up a free coaching site as well.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 06:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by portuguessuave
Hey guys. This month i played 0.5$ 180/90/45 players. Usually i open 4 tables, 2 45p, 1 180p and another one 90p. This is the results as today.



What do you think? I'm "running hot" right? I've thought about moving to 1$ 90p and 1.5$ 45p but i'm afraid i'm not that a good player and this is just pure luck. Also 200 tourneys is probably not a good sample. What do you think?
standard will be the exact same at all of those buy in levels. just make sure you are rolled for it and drop down when necessary. rois will be pretty much the same
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scroosko
congrats, they just got tougher. you do realise that $8 180s are ridic saturated as it is and they have 180 spaces to get enough fish in. the 90s have an even more limited number of spaces so an influx of even a few regs has an extremely adverse affect on your roi. enough regs and the majority wont make an roi worth playing for most of the button clickers. maybe you should twitch and set up a free coaching site as well.

Wow, what amount of negativity in this thread when i try to help out. You got to understand one thing dude: 2+2 and the community has helped me alot over the course of the last couple of years, and i am really grateful for that. I believe in sharing, and that we all get better and grows better when we share,discuss and help eachother out. That goes for all areas in life, included poker. I have always both listend to what better players have to say, as well as sharing from my own knowleadge.

If you dont believe in that, fine. But let me do what i want and have some respect. The games is what it is, this subforum is not that busy that i am concerned with the games getting particularly tougher. Many so called regs have several leaks to be honest, so that dont scares me.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Little tip for the grinders out there: i recently discovered how soft the 5 dollar 90 mann knockout turbos are compared to other games at similar stakes.

I had avoided those for some time because knockout prizes are not my fav, but when i see how soft the field is in these things i am going to play them more in the future. Compared to for example 3,50 or 7 dollar 45 manns turbos i cant believe how soft the 90 mann turbos are. Many players are just unbeliveable bad.

I dunno, maybe i was just lucky and got into some particularly soft, but check it out guys and see what you think.
Hey, thanks for sharing that valuable info, Ill let all my regish friends know so we can all crush them together
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Wow, what amount of negativity in this thread when i try to help out. You got to understand one thing dude: 2+2 and the community has helped me alot over the course of the last couple of years, and i am really grateful for that. I believe in sharing, and that we all get better and grows better when we share,discuss and help eachother out. That goes for all areas in life, included poker. I have always both listend to what better players have to say, as well as sharing from my own knowleadge.

If you dont believe in that, fine. But let me do what i want and have some respect. The games is what it is, this subforum is not that busy that i am concerned with the games getting particularly tougher. Many so called regs have several leaks to be honest, so that dont scares me.
qft
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 09:27 AM
qft? Whats that Lektor?
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 09:29 AM
Reactions here are absurd.
What effect do you honestly think gilmours post will have in a $5 (FIVE!!!) MTTSNG
It's not like they're some secret games that are hidden in the stars client that only recs know about. Get real!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
That would be fair if I was criticising someone for not sharing everything
Then I suppose your initial comment would only be fair if I was saying don't help anyone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
I'm just saying I don't see any reason why we would be cautioning someone to withhold a particular class of information on the forum that couldn't equally be applied to any other class of information shared here.
Because the classes of information are significantly different. It's apparent you don't think they are different enough, which is fine.

If you really find a soft game (probably wasn't even the case here), it will have a window. Advertising the soft game doesn't help anyone grow as a player and it may dramatically shorten your window to exploit the game. As the people you want to help join (and the chain of friends they tell etc.), the game gets worse and soon it's no better than any other game. You're losing money without really helping anyone. With strat there is give and take between players working on their game, and only people dedicated to learning will reap real benefits from it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
If you dont believe in that, fine. But let me do what i want and have some respect. The games is what it is, this subforum is not that busy that i am concerned with the games getting particularly tougher.
You're certainly free to do as you wish, and I came across more harsh than intended. I obviously believe it is a mistake and choose to be protective of similar information.

This subforum is not that busy, but everyone here has friends outside the community and word spreads quickly - landscapes change quicker than you might think. In all likelihood you just found a small sample of fishy games (unlikely on stars they would be significantly worse than other similar games) so this discussion is mostly hypothetical.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour
Many so called regs have several leaks to be honest, so that dont scares me.
This attitude is misguided and could hurt you in the long run. It doesn't matter whether you respect bad regs. It's not about being scared it's about $$, and bad regs simply take more money than fish. There is a big difference in your $EV at a table with 4 bad regs vs 2 bad regs, even if you know how to exploit some of their leaks. Think about it as replacing 2 players who had a combined -20% ROI with 2 players with a combined 0% ROI. That 20% change is taken from you and the rest of the players at the table. That's an oversimplified example for argument's sake, but there is a significant effect. It's obviously much worse when some of those regs are actually good players. You should want as few regs as possible, even bad ones.

Last edited by Beerocrat; 03-25-2015 at 09:49 AM.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
03-25-2015 , 11:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerocrat
Because the classes of information are significantly different. It's apparent you don't think they are different enough, which is fine.

...

Advertising the soft game doesn't help anyone grow as a player
Ok, I can see why you see them as different kinds of things and it is supposed to be a strategy forum rather than a community/game selection forum.

TBH I don't generally reveal information about game softness myself either but I have "traded" it before in this situation:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/31...lowed-1511428/

So at the start I ask my question about BJ basic strategy and after they help me I tell them where the +EV spot actually is. I can kind of see the point of view that someone might see themselves as benefiting from the strategy content and want to pay it back with some game selection info.

- QFT means "quoted for truth" it can be used pretty in a lot of the same situations as +1
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
04-09-2015 , 06:18 PM
Hi, this is my first post here. I hope I'm doing it right.
I started playing 45man 1.5,3.5 sng-s on PS and I have a couple of questions:

What is considered a good sample size with 45 mans and what is considered to be a good ROI at these stakes?

Would you recommend playing 180 mans too?(I think sticking to 1 type might be better.)

Can we get a clear picture of running under/over EV? I'm asking because I'm significantly below chipEV and apparently I won more money than I should have, according to the "net adjusted" graph in PT4. So which graph is right?

What time of the day is it best to play?

Are there any useful videos/topics/articles about MTT-s that I should know about?

Thanks for the help in advance.
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
04-09-2015 , 07:15 PM
I think at those stakes a good roi would be around 10% better players could have more but at that point your likely to move up. I believe a good sample for 45mans would be around 2k games(180s would be more like 5k)

As a relative new Comer I would stick to one format first then as you become more comfortable/start really beating the games you can maybe learn 180s aswell.

Not sure exactly but chipev won't help you all that much.

With those lower stake games they will be running very often so don't worry too much about when your playing. But for higher stakes games they typically run best from 1-6pm eastern time

Search this forum these is a few threads in particular that are 45m "guides". They maybe old but will still be usefull

Cheers + goodluck
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote
04-10-2015 , 12:53 PM
Hey OP,

I would play 180s over 45s if you have the time. 180s will give you a better feel for bigger tournaments and give you some good practice for when you eventually take shots at tournaments with much bigger player pools.

I wouldn't worry too much about you chipEV right now in PT4... just focus on learning the tournament structure and making decisions based on your reads/HUDs for now.

Also as or sample size I agree with Oldskool... you probably won't have a good idea of how you run until you get into the 1000s of games played. These games have pretty high variance compared to other formats (stts, etc) so its going to take some time.

I'd read as much as you can, Harrington on Holdem is probably the best series of tournament books you can read right now... I'd give Kill Everyone and Raisers Edge a shot as well.

Good luck!
ROI, Bankroll, Moving up, Variance and Downswings (containment thread) Quote

      
m