Hey guys, played this hand yesterday.
When I played the hand yesterday, I snap called, however today while reviewing my session I started realising that it was closer than I thought.
Firstly, Villain is a huge nit playing 9/7 (~250 hands sample so fairly accurate)
Now when he shoves UTG, he doesn't have a lot of hands that I dominate, right? (especially as I block AQ & KQ) So only 10s and Js maybe? So I'm flipping or dominated a large percentage of the time right???(AK,KK,AA)
Now considering I have the 2nd biggest stack and there is a lot of shorties, ICM would dictate a fold, nah?
The only argument I find to call is that after the bubble bursts (which is the case here) people tend to loosen up a bit (as they 'won money whatever happens') which would maybe mean that he's jamming more hands that I crush (AJ,99,88?)
Now this may sound stupid and I may look like a complete nit lol but not so sure its a snap call.

Curious to know what you think

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37199055

MP3: 7,375 (4.6 bb)
CO: 6,782 (4.2 bb)
BTN: 8,874 (5.5 bb)
SB: 9,064 (5.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 12,682 (7.9 bb)
MP1: 13,724 (8.6 bb)
MP2: 8,999 (5.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q Q
MP1 raises to 13,649 and is all-in, 5 folds, Hero

I don't play 45s but I just cant see this being a fold.

Honestly its tough because you want to chip up and have a shot at first or second, but I think he has you beat here.

I thought I was a complete idiot posting this for a minute. I almost took it down lol
But yeah I agree

Have you seen his cards any other times he's shoved?

PS Did you end up winning the hand?

With 8.6bb left, even the nittest of nits will start to shove a little bit wider. We're definetely ahead of a lot of his range. I disagree with "Flipping or dominated a large percentage of the time."

I think even tight nits could be A10+, KJ, KQ, 77+ here.

I don't think I could ever find a fold...

No he never got called when he jammed...

I lost the hand is all I will say

Even UTG? huh

I don't play these at all, so I have no clue about the payouts. Curious to see what ICMizer says. There no way that we are behind his/her range. That obv doesn't mean that this is +ev call. I don't think even the most supernit of the nits is openfolding 99 or AQ 7-handed with those stacks.

^ 7th place is little more than a bubble consolation prize. The Avg bubble factor here is comparable to 4-handed in a 9 man sng though the other players often don't know it because we are itm.

I think this is a call though. He may play nitty deep (with more hands it will be looser than 9/7 though) but this is a different situation. Your sample is biggish but it's not necessarily representative of how he plays utg after the final table bubble bursts with the chip lead. The main takeaway from the stats is that he basically knows what he's doing.

Never folding QQ in this spot. We are crushing villains range-even if he is nitty.

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If Villain shoves and shows that he has AK(s) are you calling?
I dont have any icm poker odds software but that is the key hand isnt it? After that you are only worried about the top two hands and you cant worry about that at this stack depth.
I am calling this all day long but I am sh0ite at poker.

snap call

No because of ICM, but it's probably pretty close when we count the pressure we would be able to exert on later hands as chip leader. I'd want about 60-65% equity to make the call.

I think he's wider that though. We crush the lower pairs and weaker aces. We have 65% against a range of 77+, XTs+, AQ+ i.e. top 9%. - BTW by XTs I mean a suited hand where the lower card is a T (or higher in the case of XTs+), whereas TXs would mean a suited hand where the higher card is a T.

I don't have ICM software either - based on this subforum it mainly seems to be used by people to ask questions like "If villain plays these ******ed ranges, and is unable or has no time to adapt to me exploiting him, how extremely can I exploit him", they then post here asking why the answer given by the software is counter-intuitive.

im really happy about this call

Insta call.

Villain's range might be ATo-AQ; A9s-AJs; KQ;55-JJ; = most mid value to compensate the lack of hand equity with FE, causing bet-call with the top of the range; or shoving all premiuns too to balance the range.

Even if you tighten up his range to 99+; AQ+, you are ahead.

I've done some more calculations on this one.

At the start of the hand, the ICM values (in cents) of the stacks are, listed in order of preflop action (i.e. main villain first, us last)

2442.4751 2004.8232 1812.1084 1734.3402 1990.9374 2011.9864 2358.3292

The bubble factors for players are (for a player reading down, against a player reading across)

XXXXX 1.9751 1.8327 1.7744 1.9650 1.9803 2.2264
1.5341 XXXXX 1.7229 1.6712 1.8403 1.8431 1.5848
1.3887 1.5771 XXXXX 1.6222 1.5838 1.5736 1.421
1.3436 1.4992 1.5739 XXXXX 1.5046 1.4964 1.3709
1.5216 1.8246 1.7192 1.6678 XXXXX 1.8187 1.5706
1.5407 1.8515 1.7247 1.6730 1.8424 XXXXX 1.5923
2.0541 1.9513 1.8125 1.7556 1.9414 1.9564 XXXXX

So our stack is worth $23.58 and potentially finishing 7th for $5.91 is 2.22 times as bad as doubling through the chip leader is good - remember, the difference between our current equity and first place is only slightly more than the equity we are risking when we go all in.

Very useful thanks!