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Hot $11 weird bubble spot

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04-27-2017 , 03:12 PM

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

668 left 660 or something cash. Weird spot here. If I fold I'm basically guaranteeing that I'm gonna min cash. However if I don't I'm gonna risk bubbling. Not sure what my shoving range should be here although I know it's gonna super tight. However BB is also super short and might be afraid to call.

Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37713835

MP1: 62,702 (39.2 bb)
MP2: 22,486 (14.1 bb)
MP3: 22,504 (14.1 bb)
CO: 45,156 (28.2 bb)
BTN: 5,605 (3.5 bb)
Hero (SB): 5,777 (3.6 bb)
BB: 9,809 (6.1 bb)
UTG+1: 88,732 (55.5 bb)
UTG+2: 49,993 (31.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

7 folds

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04-27-2017 , 03:57 PM

WHO_RUNIT

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 422

I think that's super standard. No way I'm folding TT w 3 bb's there.

The only time I MIGHT consider open folding is if it were on the direct money bubble and even still... I'm probably going with it.
I'd be more inclined to fold Ax hands (on direct money bubble) even some bigger A's (A8, A9 etc...) as well as small to medium pp's.

Nice hand.

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04-27-2017 , 04:25 PM

Glaciem

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,830

shove

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04-27-2017 , 06:34 PM

bptuneman

banned

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 554

Insta shove. I would guess this is an insta shove/call up to 7bbs?

Last edited by bptuneman; 04-27-2017 at 06:43 PM.

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04-28-2017 , 06:54 AM

Jet_Ejection

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 7

very easy shove.

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04-28-2017 , 08:52 PM

Nixie Bobtie

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 129

It's a shove even though the bubble and stack dynamics would probably mean that you're actually getting called by a wider range than usual

The BB has to call 2.5bb to win 5.6bb, so he's getting huge pot odds even though he can be confident that you aren't shoving light given the ICM dynamics

Furthermore, he can afford to lose to you and still fold his way into the money - but when he wins he's on a slightly more playable stack (>10bb). He's essentially freerolling so can afford to call wider than usual for a 6bb stack in a bubble situation

The strength of TT against a wide calling range will more than offset the lack of fold equity

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04-28-2017 , 11:49 PM

TurtleH

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 62

Hey your play was fine to me TT to strong blind vs blind to not be shoving here. The dynamic isnt to bad imo, If you say that he might be afraid to call.
He is also really short and you guys are shallow. So there isnt much fold equity to be had, besides it being the bubble. So id say well give him a callling range of
A8+ 77+ KQs ?

my range for shoving in this paticular spot would be something like KJs KQs A8+, A5s+, 66+

play for the win instead of the min cash, way more important to me at least

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04-29-2017 , 01:07 AM

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

I get the play for the win not the min cash concept. But when you're so short that even if you double you're still screwed isn't it better to guarantee a min cash from an ICM standpoint?

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04-30-2017 , 06:33 AM

Nixie Bobtie

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 129

You'd have to be really sure that you can fold your way to the money. There are still enough people to go out that you could easily end up missing out still

Let's say the BB will call with top 50%. Against that range you take it down 50% of the time and win 68% of the times that he calls - so 84% of the time you are surviving the all in

At an unusually tight calling range (top 20%) you're still 60% when he calls and surviving 92% of the time

If he calls any two you still survive 75% of the time

I think you need to be really confident that you're going to be able to fold your way in to justify laying this down

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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05-01-2017 , 05:09 PM

#10

cheferlix1

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 74

shoving with a smile in my face

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05-02-2017 , 11:56 AM

#11

NeA

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 603

Use your timebank then shove.

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05-04-2017 , 09:00 AM

#12

ltVilmas

banned

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 50

no brainer shove

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05-04-2017 , 11:25 AM

#13

SickSense666

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 61

It's obv a shove but is min-cashing that important to you? Woudn't you prefer to shove and have a shot to go for the real bucks? You are not going to pick up another premium hand and with one player left to go with such a strong hand I would always go for the shove there. Sure he will suckout once in a while but you can feel good you made the right move

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05-04-2017 , 05:21 PM

#14

Treedawgg

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 21

Its a clear shove, consider your opponents mindset, he doesn't want to bubble either. He will almost always fold and you will nearly double up with the +4400 pot. I understand mincashing is important especially when you're a small stack, but you didn't sign up to min cash, you signed up to win, and you have to put yourself in the best position to do that.

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