Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 164
#1: It's for KO, not PSKO
#2: in my opinion it is oversimplified.
#3: When Moshman said that? I used to think this way, but Many articles/videos suggest the #2 model.
Issues/limitations of #2:
It suggests you can flip my entire stack every time you can get a bounty: Let's say you are playing $5 90p PSKO blinds 10/20 and you have 1500 chips, a fun player goes all in with exactly 1500 chips from the SB, and you are on BB and you have 50% equity against his range, this model suggests you have 40% KO Pot Odds, so you have to call, but you are actually losing money when you do it...
When you flip and win, you get 1500 chips(wich according to chip EV it's worth $2.30) + $1.15 of bounty, $3.45(not taking into account that a bigger stack might help me to get more bounties in the future and not taking into account that when you win the tournament, you keep your bounty)
When lose, you lost $4.60 from your buy in(Not taking into account the rake)
The model suggests that everytime you call with 50% equity, you win $0.57(10% of the final pot 3750 chips(3k + 750 from the bounty)
The ability to get more bounties with a bigger stack and the increase of the probability of winning the tournament * your final bounty need to worth $1.72($4.60+$0.57-$2.30-$1.15) for the KO pot odds to be true, I don't think it is.
Another issue is if you have a big stack and you are risking to lose the ability to get more bounties in the future:
let's say the same situation as above happens, but now you have 3k chips, and you are facing an open shove of a villain with 3k chips and $4.60 bounty, you also have 40% KO pot odds, but if you fold, the probability of knocking out other players is bigger, if you lose you're done.
*Note that on the situations above, the model #3 suggests a 44% pot odds instead.
Last edited by ThiagoCorreia; 04-29-2017 at 07:10 PM.