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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

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Old 06-06-2017, 12:36 PM   #1
theory21
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Narrowing in on a range

I've been working more on determining hand ranges and accounting for blockers. I had an interesting hand last night in the $575 WSOP Mega Satellite that I'd like to get some opinions on.

Player notes:
Villain hasn't been getting too out of line.
Villain made a comment earlier that a player should have raised more preflop with AA to prevent a suckout.
Villain has made 1-2 plays at pots and given the comment that he's trying a few things out (a bit more on the side of fishy but worked out at the time)

Ave stack ~8k
Hero stack ~14k
Villain stack ~12k
Blinds 25/100/200

Hero raises to 550 utg with AdQc. Folds around to villain in BB who 3bets to 1300. Hero calls.

Board: QsJc6s
Action goes check check.

Board: QsJc6sAs
Villain checks. Hero bets 1k into 2800. Villain calls.

Board: QsJc6sAs9h
Villain open shoves for ~9500

At this point, what is a good range to put the villain on? How often should we fold/call?
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Old 06-06-2017, 01:07 PM   #2
bardaks86
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Re: Narrowing in on a range

i would say Js9s and 9s with spade,personally i fold here close to 100%,can't see worse hands/bluffs with this line and 2x pot overjam OTR.
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Old 06-06-2017, 11:20 PM   #3
theory21
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Re: Narrowing in on a range

I could see 99 with a spade being part of his range.

3 betting from out of position with J9s seems a bit out of line. Wouldn't this just be a call preflop by most people? Or should I still be including more suited connectors and suited gaps in the range? if that's the case, then isn't KJs, J10s, J9s, 109s, 98s, 97s, 87s, 75s, 54s just as likely?
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Old 06-07-2017, 03:06 AM   #4
bardaks86
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Re: Narrowing in on a range

i just said J9ss because he might have that hand in 3bet range OOP and he might play with this line.i assume all T,9,8... high FDs he cbets OTF.in general you should add some flushes in his range,definitely not all of them from that range what you wrote.
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Old 06-12-2017, 07:11 AM   #5
Colinb7
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Re: Narrowing in on a range

I think with preflop 3bet and flop check, it *should* be quite a narrow range. Pairs 88-TT. Jx with spade (KJss). I think you can take out JJ+, Qx.
Only value hand that makes sense to me by river is exactly KJs. I do think there are a lot more Jx one spade hands that turn into bluff on river than value.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:32 AM   #6
Colinb7
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Re: Narrowing in on a range

Fwiw it's a really interesting hand... thx for posting. Looking at the numbers, you need to be right 40% of the time if you call. Given the very small value range (would sets really punt 2x pot on a straight and flush board?) and the fact it's hard for u to call without Kspade (if villain is aware he must realise he has a good bluff spot) I'm tempted to actually call. Would be a sick value shove if he does this with anything other than flush. I think lower flushes are very unlikely. I reckon it's bluff or KJss!
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