Is bluffing on this river profitable given the ranges?

villain preflop: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s

turn cbet/c range vs raise: AA-44,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s,87s (any set, overpair, oesd, two pair)

I was trying to decide whether or not bluff otr to fold out his overpairs and everything that is not a straight. He obv calls with boats and straights

turn range: AA-44,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s,87s (71 combinations)
calls river (boats, straights): 88-44,A5s,87s (21 combinations)
folds river (overpairs) and missed oesd: 71 turn combos - 21 call combos = 50 combos

so he folds 50 out of 71 total combos = 50/71*100% = 70.42% of his range

we risk 690chips (his stack) to win 1101 (pot). So he needs to bo folding 690/1101*100%=62% of his range or more to make this bet a +EV play. Is that correct? So if I did the math correctly and he folds anything but straights and boats, we should be making chips, right?

Thank you

or should we calc it as:
690/1101+690=690/1791*100=38% fEQ required

So if he folds 38% or more of his range, then we make money

It's the second one - 38% sounds right.

If you bluff pot you need to win at least 50% (so you win pot more often than you lose pot).

If you give yourself a discount on the bluff then you don't need to win as often. For example if you bluff half-pot then it's fine as long as you win at least a third of the time (because the times you win you get double the amount you lose if he calls, so it's ok if they fall in a 1:2 ratio so 1/3 and 2/3 of the hands).

You only need to win high percents like 70 if you are overbetting (70 would be 2.333 pot)

thank you

I agree with math. I would polemize with a villain´s turn range though. I think he might check now and then some of his over pairs there, which makes the bluff less profitable, but still +EV I guess.

The fact that you don't have position in there... You will be more likely to lose the pot anyway. Especially when you miss 75% of the time on any flop with two different cards. Cards on turn that might help you will be 10 or A, once again, you don't have position and even hitting these, you have chances to lose. I don't see why you go any deeper into this pot. Call preflop is good but postflop, not so sure...

yeah, good point

totally disagree, sorry. I won't go any deeper into why

Looks like T9s makes a straight.

Will depend on if villain is a rec/reg here and understands things like range advantages, etc.

I think most players will be wary of that turn (especially those that understand a BB defending range) and probably not barrel as many combos.

forgot about that combo, but we block it so no big deal.

Yeah, it was vs fish. I don't think it was a very good spot. Just curious about math. Vs reg, I also don't like this x/r ott because most regs are gonna check their entire range ott imo.

Donk flop?

donking turn vs fish when we pick up equity seems good to me. i kinda like it vs regs too actually. we expect them to check back whole range, so why no donk and shove river then with balanced gutshots/fd/straight/sets? Like that a lot

Even donking flop and then donking turn seems really good in this spot as that flop hits our range a lot more than villains range. It would be hard for them to continue, but that river could bring in some questions as it could have counterfeited you against an overpair which may persuade villain to look you up. A boat seems unlikely for you as would you really be donking flop with a set in this spot? I think most would check to let worse hands continue. Either way I like the line of donking flop and turn.