Hey everyone,

This is my first post and I haven't found a recent debate/study on this topic on the internet, so I thought it would be interesting to get some fresh 2017 thoughts.

My question is what is the most profitable SNG format with around $300 bankroll?

Initial thoughts and research lead me to believe that 180/45/18 man turbos are best, but how do they compare to 6 max hypers/STT turbos.

In terms of my skill beating any of the games won't be a problem at these stakes so let's assume all that needs to be done is hard grinding.

Also, what kind of bankroll management is considered optimal for the games you choose?

Thanks in advance!

play 2.50 180 and 1.50 45 people with bankroll

Thank you mate I'll give it a go, gl on the tables

I am trying to get into these as well to keep table space full while playing MTTs do you not think they are too reg infested? Or still beatable?

I belive you should play only the 1.50$ 45 man with that bankroll, stay away from 2.50$ the variance can be harsh .

Although, if you go on a 100 buyin swing at 2.50's you def got some leaks.

I think you are underestimating the variance of 180s.

If you play 180's with a 20% roi, and this is very good these days - well in the top 1% of players at them, you will see a 100BI downswing 55% of the time in each 1000 game block you play, and a near certainty to see one in 5000 games. It is true that we all do have leaks though.



Hopefully by the time you see the 100BI downswing you will have earned enough BI's to cope. You can't keep just a 100BI roll at 180s unless you are the type that keeps moving up and down through stakes otherwise you go bust. Even with a 40% roi 50% of every new 2000 game block played will have a 100BI downswing in it.

I second that. I wouldn't play only the $2.50 180s with a $300 roll. I've played thousands of these games with a high roi and can tell you it's a bad idea. Perhaps play the $1 games and mix in a few $2.50s then as your roll grows move up to only the 2.50s etcc

Lol 100 Buyins down is a downswing? Funny joke.

200-250 Buyins is a really downswing on this limit.

100 Buyins down i had on 3k games this year 3 or 4 times.

By the way I have 24.3% ROI

yeah 180mans are profitable and also the devil. the payout structure is just so insane if you compare it to a 200man mtt or a 45/18man.

300$ sounds good for 1.5$ 45man, maybe 3.5$ 18man too. you can add some 2.5$s since you got 100 BI, but I would be very quick in stopping to play them, whenever you lose some BI

I used excels random number generator (1-180) and the $2.5 180m payouts and got over 5k swings on a million games (without rake). Hopefully you can do better than that but they're so top heavy, variance is killer, better know you're ICM

How did you got those results? I'd like to have a calculator like this. Thanks.

Enviado de meu Moto G (5) Plus usando Tapatalk

There are more of these available for other sized fields, roi's via this link page:
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs
Over the years from playing poker I have been picking up a little bit of probability and statistics knowledge - I still have lots and lots to learn but poker does seem to be a very interesting area to acquire a little.

Like many I was interested in knowing how frequently downswings happen and at first I started using simulations. (Many thanks to an earlier poster 'Shroom' who did some simulations for 9 seat STTs many years ago. ) After a while I wondered if you could calculate the values using some maths. I found out that Markov Chains could work.

For these graphs I used a Markov Chain with 1 absorbing state. I used a package called Mathematica do do the hard work. Each graph for large field games tends to take an hour or two of computer time to calculate.

Alas, I don't have Mathematica anymore and this is a really expensive package. At some point I think I will try doing the same thing using free Python based tools like Sage or just Scipy tools.