This player is 17/13 over 200 hands. 7.7% 3bet.
He looks tight, but he have done some stranges shows during the final table.




Sholud I have folded this, or just called, because he has the second biggest stack, and a loss against him would make it difficult for me to reach the money?

Stack sizes make this suck, but if you win the hand you basically going to finish first most of the time. Can't see myself folding.

Also I'd 3-bet a little less.

Given your 3 bet you have to call this shove all day long.

You can't 3bet fold. Flatting pre is fine, and so is 3bet/calling, but 3bet/folding is terrible. If you actually think this spot is close then you should flat.

- it is worth considering jamming with any pair is the best move, unless that pair is AA,KK and perhaps QQ in this bubble situation? - I think given the stacks and situation Jam pre is optimal. (I am a big fan of keep it simple stupid - with the big stack on the bubble and a pocket pair that is not AA KK)

--conclusion -- Jam or flat in this specific spot. (as played 3b smaller) hard to fold.

Now after seeing the results:

Fold pre--- don't wanna flip on the bubble.... :P

terrible spot to call imo, results prove otherwise so everyone will say the call is good
don't post results, get a real reply next time

wat?

wat?

he won the flip, ppl are saying it was a good call
it's still a horrible call imo, we don't need to make a move, we're risking nearly our entire stack on the bubble for a flip? and we're even lucky the guy has a AQ, could have easily been QQ, KK, AA

let's say we're flipping 60% of the time, playing against QQ+ 25% of the time and playing against a lower pair 15% of the time

we're doubling up 55% of the times we're flipping
we're losing our stack 90% of the time we're up against a higher pair
we're winning villains stack 90% of the time we're up against a lower pair

that's a lot of chance to throw away a big stack on the bubble ...

Cmon man. This is a superstandard 3bet / call spot. Your reasoning doesn't make sense to me. You are assuming he 4bet jams premiums only. I 4bet jam 99 in that spot and that's super standard for me.

3bet raise > 3bet shove > call > fold

that was what I was 'watting' about. He didn't win the hand

oh god I hate straights

[QUOTE=fidstar-poker;42732240]wat?




joking.... changing my mind after seeing spoiler..... as in don't post results you get different answers...

joking.... don't post results it skews answers... perhaps not clear enough my bad.

I would have trouble folding but I do think for icm reasons this is a fold (obviously depends on the CO though.)
For icm it is about break-even if CO is about 8% (66+ AJo+ ATs) so a lot depends on previous history, game flow, and player type etc but against most players it should be a fold.
As the V range tightens it gets quite costly quick, (99+ AQo+ AJs) comes in about -2% of the prize pool.
You have to decide on the other gains/losses not covered by icm but to me the benefit of a probable win sized massive stack, compared to the near total loss, or the alternative of losing the chip edge but still comfortably 2nd isn't great. I would say it brings the calls a touch closer but not quite enough to make a (99+ AQo+ AJs) range break even.
I'm ok with the hero 3-bet size although maybe 2100 gets the same respect - much less may induce a shove response (JJ seems a bit borderline to want to call an induced range).
I think the shove would be profitable as the CO original open would often be quite wide but I much prefer the raise-fold or raise-call lines depending on the CO player.
In game I probably call the shove but in the cold light of a review I think the fold is best (edit: but it's close).

I'm 3betting a bit smaller and probably folding vs this villain, 5handed with two very short stacks. I think the most optimistic here for someone with those stats to cold 4b shove is TT, AK. Maybe AQ but I wouldn't even be sure he cold 4b shoves that. A pretty big influence in my decision here would be hero's 3b % and how aware of this villain would be.

I think this is quite an interesting spot as it is quite close with icm using a reasonable range and hero has the chip lead.
I don't think there is one answer but it would be best playing it differently for different types.
If there was some 3-bet fold history with an aggro type V it would be great to 3-bet smallish and call an induced shove.
If V. was more of a passive type a 3-bet fold line might work well, vs a calling station it might be good to simply shove and get called wide or play it postflop.
(If the BB was super aggro a good line might be to call the open-raise and hope for a BB shove then trap some weaker CO hands. It's not really the right stack size for this but if BB was even smaller it's a idea.)
I think really the OP would have to give more info about the game to really like a line here.

jamming preflop or if I'm really nervous about bubble, I'll flat and if it's a safe board I'll bet/raise/jam

After ur 3betting size i would defo call off.. Like i don't u can fold jj given any spot..co v sb...std for sure..

Like this reassoning, def a hand with ditferent dynamics based on type of villain. Still think that if villain is competent enough and aware of ICM then is his range much wider as most people here think.

I'd probably jam atc but anything from 77+ is a fistpump induce.

i assume u 3bet to call a jam otherwise you should just flat.