PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|500/1000 Ante 100 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 9.3 BB (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
BB: 11.64 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 16)
Hero (UTG): 4.75 BB
UTG+1: 5.94 BB (VPIP: 17.89, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 123)
MP: 46.48 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
CO: 10.81 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 149)
BTN: 1.03 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has J 9

Hero?

we know there are 21 people remaining.
we know the Dealer has 1bb stack
OTOH, payments in this mtt are the same from 19th to 27th so busting 21st, 20th or 19th is the same ROI

I used PushBot with a 11% Calling Range and with a BF 1.7 shoving is +EV here.
What do you think? Would you fold?

I won't ask how do you estimate Bubble Factor here again

I'd shove here. If we fold we'll have to call very wide from the bb and our hand plays okay against calling ranges

J9o is pretty much the bottom of the gravy bowl here for ATC UTG shoves. This is good. I might not fold J6o sometimes.

I don't estimate bubble factor. Instead, I've played thousands of bubbles.

You'll get there.

jam as well

i jam. don't care about the dealer.

Well seeing as you asked

21 left in a 180 man is an average bubble factor of 1.25. As a shorty I suspect your own BF is actually lower. The single much shorter stack doesn't make much difference when the main pay jumps are still far away.

1.25 is roughly the same as 7 handed in an STT with payouts of 50-30-13, so we can use that situation as proxy for the real one.

Under chip EV our range is
UTG 27.9%, 22+ A2s+ A3o+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s

This narrows to
UTG 20.2%, 33+ A2s+ A8o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+ QJo JTs

when we use the 50-30-13 payouts.

If we are priced in to call wide next hand, we might have a good hand and get it in good against someone else who's wide. Also, gaining one CPR doesn't make that much difference to that. Anyway, the time to worry about that was earlier in this orbit when we could have jammed into fewer players.

Thanks for your answer.

Are you saing this is a profitable fold?

I think it's not just whether it's a profitable fold or not, but trying to think about whether it is slightly less profitable than what you have to work with in BB/SB.

Also, in these spots in EP, especially UTG+1/+2/MP at full or short tables, it's good to see how much wider you can profitably push.