Villian is running 34/26/17 over 253 hand sample.

He has been quite aggressive, both pre and post flop. He's been caught bluffing once when a hand got to showdown, every other time he's got to showdown he's had some sort of made hand. I had him tagged as an ok reg.


PokerStars Hand #110192762141: Tournament #849894259, $3.13+$0.37 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2014/01/15 20:20:50 WET [2014/01/15 15:20:50 ET]
Table '849894259 2' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (1675 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG (1520 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: CO (3700 in chips)
Seat 5: BTN (1530 in chips)
Seat 6: SB (2150 in chips)
SB: posts small blind 15
Hero: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [5 6]
UTG: folds
CO: folds
BTN: folds
SB: calls 15
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [2 8 3]
SB: bets 30
Hero: raises 48 to 78
SB: calls 48
*** TURN *** [2 8 3] [K]
SB: checks
Hero: bets 111
SB: raises 181 to 292
Hero: calls 181
*** RIVER *** [2 8 3 K] [6]
SB: bets 430
Hero: ???

Ok, first thing was him completing from the SB was strange as he'd either been raising or folding.

I raise the flop for value as I have flopped pretty big and have good equity v his SB range.

His C/R ott had me confused. I doubt he completes from the sb with Kx as he has been aggro, it's unlikely he's raising 8x here either imo. I imagine he raises all PP preflop too so that makes sets unlikely. So he either has a weird 2 pr, a draw or air.

I miss my draws but river 3rd pair, the only draw that got there is 45 and we have a blocker to a 5. I felt that his river sizing looks so value-y.

Thoughts?

I wouldn't raise the flop, I'd just call with all your outs and keep the pot small.

On the turn, I would just check behind to see if we can hit our draw. As played, I would fold to the check-raise as I'm pretty sure we're way behind opp's range at this point and even if we hit our FD we may not be best.

On the river, I'd fold it. If we'd checked behind on the turn I would call a small river bet, but I think given the way opp has played this hand, we are well and truly beat.

Checking T back as well, given your read there you only beat air and if is drawing i doubt is a worse draw than yours. You have to use your position against this guy, he is not the type of player who folds happy against aggression. River is a fold