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ICM ITM call shove pre 180 .50 ICM ITM call shove pre 180 .50

01-15-2014 , 03:16 PM
20 left, we're 8th or 6th or somethiing. villain only played 1 hand in last 15 or so, calling allin short from bb with 66.

PLEASE estimate either:
-a range of hands to call with (and ideally what you are thinking villain's range is to come up with that)
and/or -equity required to call
and/or -estimated bubble factor
THANKYOU THANKYOU

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #22325761

MP1: 12,238 (10.2 bb)
MP2: 3,990 (3.3 bb)
MP3: 12,684 (10.6 bb)
CO: 28,545 (23.8 bb)
BTN: 18,183 (15.2 bb)
Hero (SB): 16,903 (14.1 bb)
BB: 20,920 (17.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K Q
2 folds, MP3 raises to 12,559 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero ?
01-15-2014 , 04:07 PM
fold this one. Maybe 88+, AQo, AJs.
01-15-2014 , 04:47 PM
lovesit
01-15-2014 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fidstar-poker
fold this one. Maybe 88+, AQo, AJs.
This is about right
01-15-2014 , 07:42 PM
This is right on the edge of shoving imo. I think I lean towards a fold but I can't fault you for shoving.
01-15-2014 , 09:59 PM
cheers guys, i've been trying to estimate bubble factors, and fwiw i think it's 1.3-1.4 here.

if i'm right (no idea how to calculate bubble factor so guessed 1.3-1.4 from thin air) this means we need 52.44%-54.29% pot equity. given villain's apparent tightness (lolsample) kqs doesn't have this equity. 51.3% if he's as loose as broadway and pairs, and we have all seen villains who are tighter than this from hj i think.

in game i tankfolded but i actually think it's more of a clear fold. anyone disagree with my bubble factor estimate let me know.
01-15-2014 , 10:13 PM
Do yourself a favor and don't think about ICM until the final 6 or 7 people.
01-28-2014 , 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by emitnulB
Do yourself a favor and don't think about ICM until the final 6 or 7 people.
Thanks, much appreciated advice sinking in at last.
01-29-2014 , 07:46 AM
Its a fold, as most say forget ICM at least until FT
01-29-2014 , 12:12 PM
Hate calling off with KQ here..

AQo+ ATs+ 88+
01-29-2014 , 12:12 PM
How many ppl get paid in 180 man SnG?
01-29-2014 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beauvanlaanen
How many ppl get paid in 180 man SnG?
27
01-30-2014 , 10:21 AM
KJs+, 66+, A8s+, ATo+
01-31-2014 , 11:20 AM
Asuming 20% shove from villain...
$EV its breakevenish


cEV its a snap, first pump, spining my head, breaking the mouse be happy call

      
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