Was around 14 player, last 4.


[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $9.10 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #30331591

SB: 9,512 (23.8 bb)
Hero (BB): 6,175 (15.4 bb)
CO: 19,953 (49.9 bb)
BTN: 4,360 (10.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
CO raises to 800, BTN raises to 4,310 and is all-in, SB folds, [color="red"]Hero


payouts are:

68
45
22
15

I thought this was a pretty standard reship/call.... but I'm on the trial and unless I'm using it wrong icm is saying that I can only call with JJ,qq,kk,aa. even vs a 38% shoving range. Are you guys folding these spot?

Is that possibly correct?

No way I'm folding AQ, and my maths reason is, villain is very much short stack so they're shoving way wider than 38%.

I think this is psychological not ICM, but when people are smallest stack itm, it seems like they mostly just shove, never just raise. So I'm thinking their shove range=raising range. And that would be wider than 38%.

So if they are playing perfect ICM then maybe folding is correct. But if they aren't playing icm perfectly, then neither should we. Meaning that if their shoving range isn't optimal, then neither should our calling range, hence my call with AQ.

(btw this could all be BS justification for my inability to get away from a hand like AQ, but I can live with that.)

38% is actually pretty wide, a lot of people are tighter than this. But aq wasn't even close(if I'm doing it right) which I found shocking. I can't check anymore till tomorrow, but even if we widen his range to more than that which I don't think is realistic, it may still say fold. I wan't to know if I'm making a mistake calling off here? I snapped in game, but if this is a mistake why would you keep doing it sw_engine?

This is a very ICM heavy game. Calling with Ace-high is very bad in this spot. Your equity needs to be a lot higher, and you aren't closing action which makes your calling range even tighter. Your ICM calculator should be pretty spot on.

I'm surprised to see JJ in that range to be honest.

I'm actually new-ish to MTT, so some of my thinking comes from STT. FT dynamics are similar, but maybe the player profile is significantly different. In a STT, 3 pay, so on bubble with 4 players left, the shortie almost always is in shove/fold mode, even with 10 BB. And bubble shoving range for shortie is pretty wide.

In this spot, we're all itm, so I'm aiming for top 2. The ladder from 4 to 3 isn't that big, so if I go out in 4th or 3rd, doesn't matter nearly as much as getting to top 2. So at some point i'm going to need to double up, unless we get very lucky and big stack takes out both other opps, which isn't likely. (If 2nd stack is playing good icm then he won't gii often at all.) And AQ looks like a great spot to do it.

I know ICMizer factors in the payout structure, but I don't want bigstack (or worse, 2nd stack) to get shortie's chips. we need them too much ourselves.

If you look at not ICM but cEV, and give shortie a 25% shove range, then take out AA-QQ and AK as possible minraise to trap hands, we're 63% vs his shove range. He shoves 38%, even leaving in the big pairs/AK, we're still 62%. And that's a deal I just can't pass up.

If bubble hadn't burst and we were midstacked, maybe I could pass. If laddering wasn't so steep, maybe I could pass. But with the big money going to the top 2, we gotta get there, and we needs lots of chips to do it. The only way in this spot I could pass is if one of the top 2 stacks was totally loose, and I could count on them messing up their position. If I think they're even averagely competent (which is about what I'd call myself, better than a drooler, worse than some regs), then idk that I can overcome a major chip disadvantage if big stack busts shortie, for example.

FWIW I also find a lot of icmizer recommendations shocking as well. This doesn't mean I think they're wrong, just that they go against what many of us have in our heads, which is more basic "put opp on a range and figure out cEV" math. I learn a lot from my free 3 ICMizers a day, but I can't yet take it as Bible.

**** I totally misread the OP. I didn't realize that CO had raised first. I just thought it was us and the shortie shove.

Doesn't mean I can pass here, but now I needs to rethink.....

tl;dr

Being medium stack is very awkward because you have the most to lose and the least to gain. Therefore, I wouldn't call with anything where I'm not at least ~60% favorite against Btn's range and ~70% against original raiser's range.

BTN assumed we would probably fold and CO would be needing 37.6 percent pot odds to call. He has reshoved here with very little fold equity so presumably he has showdown value of some kind and CO may also have a hand that can eliminate us (has he been minraising a lot? - the answer should also affect BTNs shove range). In the heat of the moment I would probably call it but thinking about it I would say you are going to get shown AK or a pair a lot of the time.

It's true that it would be nice to pick up chips, but you never have a negative bubble factor. Chips won are never worth more than chips lost.

Yes the co was minraising a lot, and with his stack I don't blame him. He was trying to run us over. So I did think he was wide and Cev wise I'm confident that it is super +ev, but when icm show me it's a mistake even though I'm ahead of button range and he's wide it is surprising. I actually got shown AJ and he flopped trip jacks. I'm still think maybe I should fold though because of the payjumps??