Quote:
Originally Posted by sayakmitra
I agree with you that you usually get better hand on average, but I think my point was different. How will you fit this expectation in calculating +EV spot??
I am trying explain my point by example:
Suppose we'll shove with 80% from SB, 60% from Button, 30% from CO and 21% from MP1 in particular spot as we calculated it is profitable regarding our stack and opponent's stack and their calling ranges. Now we didn't get dealt top 21% of hand in MP1 and we folded. Will that increase our chances to get dealt 30% hand in CO?? Mathematically (Rather according to probability theory), No: you can't predict, the chances of getting dealt top 30% hand is 30%. It won't go up as you did not get top 21% hand in last hand. So you might expect to get better hands next time but you can't put it in a formula.
I think I am clear enough now. Please let me know your opinion(with mathematics and logic) if you think I am wrong.
Yes, it is absolutely correct what you said about those ranges and how it doesn't affect cards being dealt next hand. I think the vast majority of us knows that but this was well explained, thank you.
But I think we can put the average we can expect from the next hand in to the formula. We are not expecting some mysterious better hand we can't calculate, we are always expecting the average.
The formula would be just too long and complicated if we would try to find the formula of winning the whole tournament or even then if we'd like to do better just in the next couple of orbits. Because there are too many factors to be considered. We'd have to know the opponents that well we never could to predict their actions and even then the formula would get too complicated. At least for me. :P
I think the ranges we are normally using in our game are naturally close to those we could calculate in those formulae anyway. At least it is that for the regs. Because we derive those ranges from our experience of winning and so on. Although the variance could give us the wrong ideas about good ranges.
I haven't read much books about this, (don't read much books tbh. Just using my logic, sry.
So please take this as my opinion only).
I am sure it could have been calculated roughly in some books I am sure.
And I am sure some of the guys here can calculate the rough estimates too for a few consecutive hands/orbits.
It is just complicated and would take time.
I think the basic ranges we are pushing/calling and everyone knows about are the result of the rough calculations someone has done and the natural adaption anyway.
Gl at the tables everone!
Last edited by musaire; 01-28-2012 at 08:54 PM.