2.5 180 77 sb vs shove from reg (semi FT) - MTTSNG -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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2.5 180 77 sb vs shove from reg (semi FT)

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05-29-2012 , 02:50 PM

masisty

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 29

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1,200(BB) a125 Replayer
Hero ($11,567)
BB ($15,700)
UTG ($13,936)
UTG+1 ($10,293)
UTG+2 ($18,819)
CO ($30,372)
BTN ($19,448)

Dealt to Hero 7

UTG raises to $13,811 (AI), ,fold,fold,fold,fold
hero ?

hi !
utg is a winning reg at these stakes.

thx

05-29-2012 , 03:10 PM

lucasstar

newbie

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 46

What about stats? Against a winning player I am inclined to call here and gamble it up a bit. Even more if there are 14+ people left, if I am not mistaken.

05-29-2012 , 03:53 PM

Birkin

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,362

Its really close. I'd probably lean towards folding, just because he shoved UTG. If he shoves from the HJ or later I'm snapping.

05-30-2012 , 01:55 AM

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by Birkin

Its really close. I'd probably lean towards folding, just because he shoved UTG. If he shoves from the HJ or later I'm snapping.

this. you still have 9.5bbs, id much rather shove atc next hand than hope for a flip.

05-30-2012 , 03:17 AM

letthecardsfall

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,596

Exact number of players left and more info than "winning reg" would make this decision a lot easier.

And shoving 72o (and a bunch of other junk as well) from the BTN next hand is burning money Mr Wolfe, and certainly not nearly as good as calling off here.

05-30-2012 , 03:49 AM

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

Against any decent reg this is a super standard snap call.

05-30-2012 , 04:39 AM

Name Changed

banned

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,074

this. its very close. i d get 11 in if there was a card with a value of 1

05-30-2012 , 06:02 AM

AcidManner

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 382

vs reg i call here

05-30-2012 , 07:16 AM

Birkin

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Wolfe

this. you still have 9.5bbs, id much rather shove atc next hand than hope for a flip.

You can't shove ATC next hand cos a winning reg is in the BB

05-30-2012 , 12:26 PM

#10

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

id still rather fold here, and not just needlessly increase variance, just because u have a pocket pair.

Or if you feel you have no edge later game, snap call.

05-30-2012 , 12:27 PM

#11

No99001

stranger

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4

I think this is borderline situation but I would call. Mostly because of top heavy payout structure of 180s..

05-31-2012 , 07:50 AM

#12

streetwalkincheeta

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 5,132

Should be a fine call, unless it's a nitty reg. 77 is doing more than fine against a reasonable range here + there's dead money.

05-31-2012 , 09:24 AM

#13

sayakmitra

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 635

I would call this most of the time against a decent reg unless I have special reads not to do so.

05-31-2012 , 04:09 PM

#14

mckrogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,495

wtf? fold imo....

06-01-2012 , 12:41 AM

#15

bombonanza

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,173

UTG+Winning Reg+11BB = 88+,AQ+

i fold, best case scenario is a flip....

06-01-2012 , 01:51 AM

#16

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by bombonanza

UTG+Winning Reg+11BB = 88+,AQ+

i fold, best case scenario is a flip....

What a nit this winning reg is

06-01-2012 , 02:29 AM

#17

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

cause open jamming 44 there is profitable......

06-01-2012 , 04:19 AM

#18

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Wolfe

cause open jamming 44 there is profitable......

Right, any pair is profitable in that spot, especially when people are folding 77 in the SB to the jam :P.

06-01-2012 , 04:30 AM

#19

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

so your saying you have no edge? and feel you need to take every flip that you can.

06-01-2012 , 04:58 AM

#20

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

So you're saying you're able to calculate your edge in a way that makes 22 a fold in that spot? You either overrate your edge or are just misreading the hand here. +cev lines, being a shove or a call, are never a flip. A flip is neutral ev.

06-01-2012 , 05:01 AM

#21

Matt Wolfe

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,248

You are over estimating a regs range here. 66+ KQ+ is a good solid range here. lets see you beat 66, everything else you are a dog to or a flip. If you enjoy variance call....

06-01-2012 , 06:41 AM

#22

hardcoreUFO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,281

66+ KQ+ is a godawful range here. No good reg should ever be this tight. I would be amazed if a reg is not at least jamming 22+, suited broadways and suited aces in this spot. If he isn't then that's his leak really. I'm not advising anyone to even call light in the spot. 77 is just a really good hand here. I don't understand at all the reasoning for folding. I fail to realise how variance should affect any decision we make, ever, in 180s. One of us is just dead wrong.

06-01-2012 , 06:57 AM

#23

Tregon

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 281

Nash shows the following range for UTG:

17.6%, 22+ A8s+ A5s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s

so in reality people should push 20%+ in this spot since almost nobody calls as wide as he should according to Nash. But as we can see in this thread many regs shove way tighter so I would personally fold the 77 without knowing more about the specific reg.