What about stats? Against a winning player I am inclined to call here and gamble it up a bit. Even more if there are 14+ people left, if I am not mistaken.
Exact number of players left and more info than "winning reg" would make this decision a lot easier.
And shoving 72o (and a bunch of other junk as well) from the BTN next hand is burning money Mr Wolfe, and certainly not nearly as good as calling off here.
So you're saying you're able to calculate your edge in a way that makes 22 a fold in that spot? You either overrate your edge or are just misreading the hand here. +cev lines, being a shove or a call, are never a flip. A flip is neutral ev.
You are over estimating a regs range here. 66+ KQ+ is a good solid range here. lets see you beat 66, everything else you are a dog to or a flip. If you enjoy variance call....
66+ KQ+ is a godawful range here. No good reg should ever be this tight. I would be amazed if a reg is not at least jamming 22+, suited broadways and suited aces in this spot. If he isn't then that's his leak really. I'm not advising anyone to even call light in the spot. 77 is just a really good hand here. I don't understand at all the reasoning for folding. I fail to realise how variance should affect any decision we make, ever, in 180s. One of us is just dead wrong.
so in reality people should push 20%+ in this spot since almost nobody calls as wide as he should according to Nash. But as we can see in this thread many regs shove way tighter so I would personally fold the 77 without knowing more about the specific reg.
66+ KQ+ is a godawful range here. No good reg should ever be this tight. I would be amazed if a reg is not at least jamming 22+, suited broadways and suited aces in this spot. If he isn't then that's his leak really.