So I'm wondering if cEV tells us anything useful?

If I analyse my database for hands where I busted in 45 mans
I get this:

Net Won: -126k chips
cEV difference 102k

Does this mean I'm running bad?

I know it's a small sample, but I don't know how much ICM on final tables makes these figures worthless or not. Or are they a reasonable indication of how good/bad you're running.

Thanks for advice

So key to this question and the answer is in your initial filtering.

When you filter for 'hands where you busted 180s' all the hands return will necessarily be -chips, regardless of whatever equity you had in the hand. So if you had 20% equity and lost it'd show as EV dif (-20%), except given the filter every hand you get returned is going to be EV dif (<0).

What you could do, depending on sample size, is go to the setting in your database where you see your stats per blind level. You should be able to then see your bb/100 and EV bb/100. This will tell you how much you're running over or under EV.

Be careful when calculating expected values what your initial filter is inherently telling you

This is really useful, thanks for the explanation Sohoskiracer

I found a stat called EV bb/100 and over my small sample of 0.25c 45 mans (150 games) it shows 10.15 - and my bb/100 is 12.64 - so this means I'm running good?

also how do you decide what is running really bad and what is really good, is 2.5 a big difference here, or standard? thanks

^that is honestly really hard to tell, and is easier if you divide by blind levels.

For example, if you are running WAYYY under EV at blind levels corresponding to FTs that's probably a bit of runbad, b/c you get there less often and you are playing w/ more equity.

But the overall sample is easily skewed by, say, getting AKo AIPF vs JJ and winning in the first level, you have a lot more BBs at that level and less equity.

I find it's really not THAT useful a metric as we don't use bbs as a metric in tournaments, we use equity. But it can show you certain things, like if on a long downswing but have a reasonable itm it could be useful to see if you're playing badly in endgame or just getting shafted over a 1k game sample or something...it's mostly useful for things like that, improving play and identifying leaks at different blind levels