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Decision process in calling a shove (1$/180) Decision process in calling a shove (1$/180)

11-22-2015 , 07:08 PM
PokerStars - $0.91+$0.09|50/100 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 42.85 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 4.18 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (SB): 27.4 BB
BB: 16.13 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 13.42 BB (VPIP: 10.84, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 166)
UTG+1: 9.16 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 14.29 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP+1: 32.9 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 18)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 4.08 BB and is all-in, Hero calls

I want and I would apreciate your feedback on the decision process if BB folds 4 sure rather than taking him into consideration.
Thank you.

I put CU on a range and take it from the equilibrum chart: from CU with 5bb, the pushing edge is at 50.5% (22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 76s)
I calculate my hand equity vs a 50% range: ~52.85%.
I calculate the pot equity if i call (with an estimated BF of 1.2): ~40.23%.
Therefore, a call is profitable.
11-23-2015 , 05:09 AM
I think you are not considering 2 things:
1 nash equilibrium is based on the assumption that everyone is playing optimally
2 bb still left to act
11-24-2015 , 03:51 PM
Flat is fine. Lead some gutshot flops when BB calls and you have your bluff/sidepot equity tucked in to make it a bit sweeter.

Last edited by Kristofero; 11-24-2015 at 03:52 PM. Reason: Double barrel some too perhaps.
11-29-2015 , 04:51 PM
Within the constraints set by your question, the flaws in your thinking are that I assume you are taking BTN's pushing range from a chipEV pushing chart, whereas using an ICM-adjusted one would give a different range for him, so you need to bubble factor him too - he should probably be wider because you should be tighter. Also is 1.2 a correct bubble factor against such a short stack at this stage in the tournament?

As others say though, GTO shoving ranges are too wide to put people on in these tournaments. When they actually push you have to take them seriously, most of the time though you passively exploit them by getting folded to more often than you should.

Other than that, consider just jamming rather than just calling and letting BB flat behind and have position on you postflop. If you run into a monster, well, you would have had to call a raise from it preflop anyway (actually maybe folding to a reshove is better but EV-wise it's close enough that leaving yourself the opportunity to fold after a flat isn't that valuable).
11-30-2015 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Also is 1.2 a correct bubble factor against such a short stack at this stage in the tournament?
Why not define a range of factors and hit the median in flux?
11-30-2015 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kristofero
Why not define a range of factors and hit the median in flux?
I never have a clue what he is on about lol.
11-30-2015 , 05:48 PM
Maybe its a silly question but the blinds are 50/100, would BF be a factor at this stage? How many players are left?

If you just flat, there is a fair chance that BB will call which I don't think is ideal & complicates things, I think I would shove
11-30-2015 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by URagnatha
I never have a clue what he is on about lol.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/47...l#post48775011

Last edited by Kristofero; 11-30-2015 at 08:23 PM. Reason: if you gon troll, find a troll subforum kbai
12-01-2015 , 06:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Also is 1.2 a correct bubble factor against such a short stack at this stage in the tournament?
I took the average BF from your post here

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
I assume you are taking BTN's pushing range from a chipEV pushing chart, whereas using an ICM-adjusted one would give a different range for him, so you need to bubble factor him too - he should probably be wider because you should be tighter.
That's correct and thanks for the info. I used Jennifear

OTOh, does this come in contrast with:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
GTO shoving ranges are too wide to put people on in these tournaments
?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Madsaac
Maybe its a silly question but the blinds are 50/100, would BF be a factor at this stage?
answered this
12-01-2015 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Theodorus20
I took the average BF from your post here
That's assuming everyone has the same stacks and you are gambling the whole of your stack to potentially double up. Thinking about jamming for 25 BBs, well the first 5BBs of a stack are worth more money than an extra 5BBs on top of a 45BB stack - in other words BBs 0-5 are worth more than BBs 45-50. Similarly, BBs 5-10 are worth more than BBs 40-45 and so on, but the difference isn't as pronounced, the difference gets progressively smaller until you say that BBs 20-25 are worth only very slightly more than BBs 25-30. The overall effect of that might give us a bubble factor of 1.2 as a kind of average for the different values of losing or doubling whole stack, but it's not linear - the middle bit of that has a much lower bubble factor and that's the case here.

In other words, you aren't gambling the most valuable chips at the bottom of your stack to potentially win the least valuable ones at the top of a doubled stack, you're just gambling some of your chips to won other ones of a similar value.

      
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