he seems like a weakish reg.. dont have too many stats on him but ive seen him bet fold 2x this session. breakeven-ish graph

i thought about raising the turn. decided against, should we?

if we do decide to raise the turn what would be some good cards to jam river on besides the obvious ones where we hit? or once called ott we should just give up w no sdv as villains range is prolly alot stronger when he gets to the river?

Generally i dont give too much credit when a weak player donks on me specially if i have position on him, i would raise this flop to about 250-300 if he calls we re-evaluate OTT but we cant just call a guy that donks on us cuz we´re most likely facing multiple barrels from him and our hand isnt much likely to improve so i would take advantage of his "weak" game and overpower him using position specially if i already see him bet/folding twice.

i would def. not be raising his donk on this board. this is not a board that favors our range but does favor his range. Against his range we have about 30% equity at the moment. Hes giving us a reasonable price to call with our gut and backdoor draw. We have a positional advantage so best to use it. By raising we reduce this advantage and blowup the pot with not a great hand. Besides, we can always bluff him off on later streets if we are so inclined.

call flop. call turn/sometimes raise, fold river. would have played it the same way.

Do you have any Donk stats on him?

I would not even call this on the flop but calling on the turn

did some work on how to balance our ranges on this flop.

To be balanced we need to have:

value raise:bluff 1:2
draw:bluff raise 2:1

Our value range: AK (12) KK(3) JJ (3) 22 (3) KJ (9) : 30 combos

Draws we raise: QTdd (1) ATdd (1) A9ss (1) Q9dd (1): 4 combos

So now we can add 60 + 2 = 62 bluff raise combos. Best to use gutshot and single
backdoor draws for these type of hands.

Finally we call his bet with:

Kx,Jx+, 8outer draws , gutshot + fd, 66+

What do you think?

I think you might be over evaluating the hand..lol...I agree with either folding flop or raising his bet OTF, I think calling is the worst option

+1

why? its not a 10bb bvb or anything. this kind of gto calcs are already mandatory in cash games. will become std in mtts too. better get used to it.

take it easy there

i meant nothing by it. just that we as mttsng players should get use to it or fall behind

Im aware of GTO and its use in poker but dont know what it has to do with this hand in particular and why we should take an GTO approach here when we can exploit villains OP already stated that he have saw villain bet/fold twice this session and even tho it says nothing about donk betting but this just show me villain has some sort of equity on the flop and/or is on a complete bluff here either way we can outplay him post using position and aggresion, not saying my line is more EV and/or optimal than yours thats up for debate just saying that from my experience in these games i can take down pots in the turn and river very often instead of taking a pasive line and waiting for either villain give up on the hand or i get "lucky" hitting my draw on later streets.

PS: For the record, when quoting onehandatatime i should had left out the..

part of his comment.

Sorry

much different dynamics between cash and mtt's

And I apologize, I thought you were the OP.

fold flop vs weak reg

If he's weak then he's likely to just "one and done" this so the second barrel looks like strength - though you have an easy pot odds call.

usually those donk bets are "I dont have anything so Ill donk to fold for a raise"

Call is the worst line to follow I guess.

Raise flop, and in the worst scenario he will cold call and you get turn and river for free.

Sounds like the best way to play this.

Sounds like it but I still wonder. This will happen 1 on 7-8 maybe.