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ATo on bubble of 18 man, shove or fold? ATo on bubble of 18 man, shove or fold?

02-25-2015 , 02:05 AM
Was I wrong to shove rather than fold here given that we were on the bubble and I was second in chips? I've noticed shortstacks generally shove light UTG during high blinds since they'll be in the BB the next hand.

PokerStars - $13.89+$1.11|300/600 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 4.25 BB (VPIP: 15.52, PFR: 5.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
Hero (CO): 9.58 BB
BTN: 18.61 BB (VPIP: 24.36, PFR: 19.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 162)
SB: 3.86 BB (VPIP: 8.11, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
BB: 8.7 BB (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 38)

5 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.92 BB) Hero has A T

UTG raises to 4.16 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 9.5 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.24 BB, 2 players) Q 7 4

Turn: (10.24 BB, 2 players) K

River: (10.24 BB, 2 players) Q

UTG shows 8 8 (Two Pair, Queens and Eights)
(Pre 55%, Flop 76%, Turn 84%)
Hero shows A T (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 45%, Flop 24%, Turn 16%)
UTG wins 10.24 BB
02-25-2015 , 03:56 AM
I think it would be the bottom of my reshove range as well.
But I don't think villain will be that wide with the current stack setup in mind.
02-25-2015 , 05:38 AM
Depends on Villain - if he has been sitting there inactive, happy to blind away into the FT, then I find a fold. You will be behind that range and be crippled if you lose. you still have big stack + BB to act who will effectively dump you out if they wake up with a hand.
Otw, like F0ldz, this is a marginal spot and I think this is very bottom of calling range, but never happy clicking that call button. Money jumps get decent after this (assuming this is a 180?), so sometimes think I prefer to take my chance on better spots in another orbit.
Muddled response I know....but think this is V dependent.
02-27-2015 , 05:07 PM
I'm in line with OP's thinking. V is functionally the short stack, in that if he folds, as long as no one busts out this hand, he's in BB next and will be shortie. And this hand is literally his last chance to have any FE.

I ran 2 ICMizer ranges. If you think V is very tight (88+ ATs AJo KQs), then it's a fold, but I opened his range to about 30% (any pair, ace, or suited broadway, K4s, K8o, Q9s), and it's a call (+.43%, your range should be 66+, A8s, ATo). I don't think a fold is bad here either; as always, it depends on what you think his range is. If I was V, I'd shove closer to the 30% than the 7%.

For the record it's an 18 not a 180. Top 4 get paid. As such, I'm almost never worried about an overcall. Even big stack's range to overcall has to be nutted, meaning that if he wakes up with a hand it's likely to bust both us and OR, so we are ITM anyway.
03-02-2015 , 01:17 PM
Villain is vpip 16 pfr 6

This tells me he is on the fishy side and that he most likely is not shoving anywhere near correct.

So fold.
03-02-2015 , 03:52 PM
its incorrect for UTG to be very wide here, even if he's taking a -EV shove

also since he's 16/6 its a fold

      
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