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AQs vs two villain w/ FD in Flop AQs vs two villain w/ FD in Flop

06-30-2015 , 06:35 PM
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.91 Buy-in (10/20 blinds, 3 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36953571

MP2: 1,431 (71.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): 1,688 (84.4 bb)
CO: 1,461 (73.1 bb)
BTN: 1,441 (72.1 bb)
SB: 1,031 (51.6 bb)
BB: 2,028 (101.4 bb)
UTG+1: 1,391 (69.6 bb)
UTG+2: 1,451 (72.6 bb)
MP1: 1,578 (78.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A Q
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls 20, MP1 calls 20, MP2 raises to 40, Hero raises to 140, CO calls 140, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls 120, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 100

Flop: (637) K 2 7 (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, CO bets 637, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises to 1,288 and is all-in, [color="red"]Hero??

I know this is a cbet like 100% of the time but I decided to check because I thought that I was going to get raised and pot was big to play for stacks. I tried to avoid that, but then when the action get on me I realized I was getting good pot odds. I think it is close and the villain that is left to act is almost never folding...so what do you think about calling??
07-01-2015 , 08:41 AM
Hmm - you need 29% to make the call assuming CO comes along - otherwise you need almost exactly 33.3%. I don't think the CO is coming along every time - he may have just taken a stab after everyone checked to him on the flop.

I doubt your A is ever good - there don't look to be pair plus no-good flush draws - against AK you have odds - if you are against a set you have 25% because of his redraws to a full house and TBH the set looks most likely - against the other holdings like AK or K7s you are into pretty marginal call territory though.

If you think they have play KX or JT of diamonds like this then it becomes a snap call but I don't think they do.

I would fold here.
07-02-2015 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Hmm - you need 29% to make the call assuming CO comes along - otherwise you need almost exactly 33.3%. I don't think the CO is coming along every time - he may have just taken a stab after everyone checked to him on the flop.

I doubt your A is ever good - there don't look to be pair plus no-good flush draws - against AK you have odds - if you are against a set you have 25% because of his redraws to a full house and TBH the set looks most likely - against the other holdings like AK or K7s you are into pretty marginal call territory though.

If you think they have play KX or JT of diamonds like this then it becomes a snap call but I don't think they do.

I would fold here.
I would not be that worried about sets here in 1$ game.
They definitely can have enough other hands.
After CO make it pot i also don't think it often set, people just tend to overly slowplay sets and try not want scare people away not betting this huge, i also think CO will come along after putting so much money in lot of times given 6:1 when it come back to him.

Anyway, I think OP argument for not betting flop is weak bc we are looking at this flop to get all our money in as fast possible and also i would never get away from flop with nut flush draw here.
If we are overly paranoiac about people having sets here, sure we can talk ourselfes into they having set everytime and that we have just 25% equity but in reality adding just few combos of anything else already will give u 30-40% equity. (30% just giving sets+2p only already)

Last edited by kamitis; 07-02-2015 at 05:57 AM.
07-03-2015 , 05:13 PM
preflop: ok

flop: bet to 425, as played c/f, CO will come along often
07-03-2015 , 06:56 PM
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