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45 man bubble spot

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01-26-2017 , 05:47 PM

SteTruce

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 501

Hi,

I wonder whether this would be a push, eve though there are two players very short in the bubble.
ICMizer suggests to shove assuming villains will call only with 1% and BB with 20% (only in case the action is left on him).

I wonder what you think about this hand.
Thanks in advance

Poker Stars, $0.45 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37596252

UTG+2: 21,582 (18 bb)
MP1: 10,607 (8.8 bb)
Hero (MP2): 5,072 (4.2 bb)
MP3: 3,125 (2.6 bb)
CO: 1,785 (1.5 bb)
BTN: 5,333 (4.4 bb)
SB: 10,780 (9 bb)
BB: 9,216 (7.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A

2 folds, Hero ?

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02-03-2017 , 06:08 PM

buttonko

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 29

That´s a shove. It´s probably at least AT+ given your stack in this spot.

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02-05-2017 , 03:47 PM

Corpsey

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 438

Players at these stakes will be paying less attention to ICM so the ranges that push/fold software will recommend I would doubt are accurate. Players tend to shove tighter and call wider than they should, on the whole.

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02-06-2017 , 05:30 PM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

Isn't 1% more like their overcall range? (i.e. to be the third person all in?)

I would definitely jam this. It's true that players don't look enough at ICM, but I've found this to be less true on the direct bubble. They ignore ICM too much once ITM and also before the direct bubble but they love to reach the money.

Nash calculator gives e.g.
Hero 25.2%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K9s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s
called by MP3 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+

Basically if (for example) MP3 is too wide and adds weaker aces or KQ to his range that doesn't bother us too much with AQ as we are 70-30 against them. It would be a reason not to push some of the J9s type stuff, but AQ is fine.

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02-08-2017 , 09:04 AM

SteTruce

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 501

Thanks Lektor, as precise as always

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