Why folding AQ here is not so terrible :

> BB is real short.
> Initial Raiser is never raise folding with that stack .
> We will be BU next hand, and have a stack just big enough to put pressure on others.
> Except chipleader, all are mid stacks. Perfect to put pressure on, once bubble bursts, and ICM becomes a major factor.

Why flatting AQ is bad :

> we are playing OOP.
> loosing chips in the long run by just flatting.
> risking major $EV to take up a very marginal +cEV spot.
> Loose our open-shove FE .

Folding here anyday.

Easy shove. Flatting is retarded.

.

shove imo

MP2 seems dumb to me, when he makes this raise here for me its one of two things

a) he has a monster, and is hoping one of the bigger stacks behind him will try to ICM f him and shove on him, or

b) he has a middling hand that he wants to open but is aware of the shortstack in BB, so will call off against the shortstack but fold to the bigstacks

I think b) is more likely, so shove, make him fold, the bigstack might call you but you are likely ahead of his range, he never has AK when he flats, he might have a low/medium pair and get stubborn with it, but then you just have to win flips, if you play a lot of 45s then you should be good at winning flips already

edit: read responses, ppl think there is no chance MP2 will raise/fold an 11.8BB stack, in a $1.50/45, on the bubble with a large ICM factor due to the shortstack in BB? I disagree with that, have seen plenty of times when people raise/fold lower stacksizes

Shove.
We are not the ones under ICM pressure. The raisers/flatters are, so we might even get hands like 99/TT to fold which is great. Just cram it in and increase your stack by 50% most of the time.
The BB will almost always call (though I have seen some amazing folds in the past). But this is not a problem as we have AQ!!

Agreed. Shoving here is a high variance play, which is exactly the kind of situation you'd like to avoid on the bubble. Flatting and playing OOP is terrible. Even if you just c/f you just lost 1.5BBs on a flyer. Flatting in the hopes of hitting top pair in this situation is bad bad bad, especially considering that if you hit your Q, there's a good chance you still won't have the best hand, and you're OOP.

It's hard to fold AQ here, but you have to be able to. You're the button next and can pick better spots to abuse.

if it's bubble we can fold because we're practically ITM after BB busts, in the money I shove pre to iso the short and squeeze dead money

I think the worst play here is to flat. Nothing good can come out of it. I like shoving best but can see an argument for folding.

anything but a shove here is kinda lol imo, people saying we have no FE vs original opener are clearly wrong, this guy can very well open and fold here even though it may not be 'correct' for him to do so but, its likely a random in a $1 sng does not know correct play and I have seen it a ton, randoms just raise folding even as low as 8bb stacks! also even if we have no FE, it doesn't exactly determine much because its not like we are shoving light here and need FE, what we need to determine is whether our hand is ahead of villains opening range, AQ being very likely ahead very often given that hes a random and has aggro stats. also we dont care about bb as AQ is crushing a random hand plus he can, suprisingly still find a fold here, its a $1 sng afterall, anything is possible lol I'm fist pump getting AQ in here everytime

Yea, you gotta fold here because that pay jump from 8th to 7th in an INFINITE percentage. [/sarcasm]

This hand is a shove, it's not even remotely close to any other possible decision.

Why do you even feel the need to post. Technically it is an infinite percentage pay jump. If your not going to provide useful polite additions to the discussion then don't post. Cheer up and stop trolling on 2+2 thinking you'r big time.

Leaning towards a shove here.

Right church, wrong pew. I've trolled HSMTT threads with players much better than myself. I even included a sarcasm tag before submitting my serious answer. Lighten up.

Oh and I'm aware it's an infinite percentage payjump, hence the effing joke, equating the min cash with infinite awesomeness.

Honestly I'd want some sort of read on the MP3 player (heh), as he's the one that can bust us and cause us to bubble. If he's gotten that big stack by being ridic loose/bad (esp. with some loose/bad preflop spite calls of all ins) and catching cards, then I could see a fold, as ICM would obv say getting it all in here even as a decent fave against his wide range would be bad. If he's the kind that will flat behind pre there with tons of trash but fold to our push like 90% then push it is. But with his stack some guys will just click call alot so you need a feel for if he's that kind of guy or not imo.

Button can bust us too, but we're like even in chips and I just don't see a call from him often at all for all his chips unless I've got a read otherwise. Can't really put him on an actual good hand here and it's just less likely he calls with his stack.

MP2 doesn't worry because we are obv easily ahead of his range (33/21) and he can't bust us.

So MP3 is the main one to focus on here, some sort of read is needed. If it isn't the exact bubble I'm easily pushing like every time given this situation. Of course for us to actually bubble you either need 1) bb to fold despite having ~60% of his stack in the blind, and then obv get called and lose or 2)bb to call, mp3 or button call, and then have the showdown go 1st bb 2nd: mp3/button, last: you, which would be fairly unlucky either way, which makes me lean towards a shove unless I think mp3 is like calling a ton.

There would be a ton of dead money in the pot. There's no way getting it in here against 22 is bad. If ICM says that, then ICM is useless. And 22 surely represents better equity against our hand than his entire range.