No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$4.10+$0.40

Stacks:
UTG #$#1977#DK (5,858)
UTG+1 potdeksel (8,559)
MP1 Nahrens (1,995)
MP2 Hero (7,482)
CO Kotsos85 (18,792)
BTN xxjerezxx (6,285)
SB Sick_RiverNH (3,114)
BB p1relli (2,470)

Blinds: 125/250 Ante 25

Pre-Flop: (575, 8 players) Hero is MP2 9 9
3 folds, Hero raises to 500, Kotsos85 calls 500, 3 folds

Flop: 8 4 3 (1,575, 2 players)
Hero bets 630, Kotsos85 calls 630

Turn: 2 (2,835, 2 players)
Hero bets 1,134, Kotsos85 raises to 2,750, 1616 to Hero (5218)?


We were discussing about this hand with a friend and not sure about what would be best turn. We have only 8 hands on the guy so no relevant stats here.

getting it in but so not suprised when he turns over a set. he could also be doing this on the turn with a staight/flush draw,but his raise on the turn does look strong.

id probably make a better judgement if we had more info on villain.

weve played very little with him so it basically comes down to a guessing game.

i think ur beat tbh.

more flop and a bit more turn, as played its prob a fold tbh. he doesnt have any bluffs in his range (altho ur tiny flop bet and seemingly small turn bet OCCASIONALLY induces spaz..

What flop/turn do you want to get it in with 99?
Overpair not enough at even NanoStakes, then fold pf.

Anyway, a minraise pf is too small IMHO.

Beside a 9, it's the best card in the deck for you.
Anyway, as played, you are committed even vs a set-mining assumption after 8? hands.

If you think it's a fold as played, why do you wanna play it with bigger bets so we are just commited and don't have to think ? Not saying it's bad, just trying to understand. I know that thoses sizings will very occasionally induce some spazz, but i feel that his range here most of the time crushes us pretty badly.

I know usually i would play it with big bigger sizing and just say FML turn when we're beat, but i feel like we can do better here. And that's why i posted the hand, not to get like BET BIGGER GET IT IN WE HAVE THE OVERPAIR ON THE LOW FLOP (no disrespect obv)

because we get more value from weaker holdings, which will still call and also usually it's so we set up stacks more appropriately to shove turn and or river (not specifically in this hand but just general)
not mandatory but you are missing value.

Ok in general but here, what would be the point of betting bigger turn if when he raises we have very bad equity ? Assuming they won't go too out of line because of small sizing ?

because all the times he has a worse hand that will call we will get more value :S

Ok i guess it's impossible to not be considered as a noob if we don't have enough posts here.

I understand that if we bet more we'll get more value duh. I'm just trying to decide if it's better to play it with bet sizing that doesn't commit ourselves on the turn to leave us room for folding when he raises (even if it's a very rare case).

It's bad to give away value just for the case that you could be beat. I guess that's what OMGClayDol wanted to say. You should always bet it bigger because you will get a ton of value from all the 8x-Hands / maybe some AK/AQ's. Altough there isn't too much you beat anyways so in this case it worked out well for you betting smaller (in case you folded).
Its not: We bet bigger to make our decision on turn easier because we cant folt anymore
Its: We bet bigger because we are ahaed against his range. Betting for Value is the most important concept against these players!

Betting for Value >>>>>>> Not to commit (<- could be the conclusion of my ****ty post...)

u asked the question in a way that implied you didnt get it
oibv not trying to insult u

Sry I was mass-tabling earlier hence the short reply. I don't understand what the issue is, you asked a question and I answered it with a reason, then you disagreed.. I didn't say or imply you are newb or bad. Trust me, I am not insulting you, or I wouldn't even bother replying in the thread.

There is pretty much no such thing as commitment. (barring literally having such a good price you can draw to your two pair/trips correctly)
Yes it may feel lamer to fold with 3k behind in a 12k pot, instead of 5k into a 10k pot instead (example only) but you are still doing better in the long run by bigger/fold if they are calling with worse often enough, which they will.

I don't think you're beat here at all to be honest.

You played out weakly on the flop, you bet the turn even though you didn't seem to have improved. He's reading you as having a hand lower than say AJ and he's just picked up a gutshot with an ace in his hand with the two on the turn and possibly a flush draw so he's trying to get you to lay it down. Otherwise I think he can have suited connectors such as 89 enough of the time that re-raising, rai is fine. I don't think flat calling or folding is an option here unless you have reads on this guy that he plays sets specifically this way.

I'm shoving, betting considerably more on the flop, 1k+, if flop bet (and FPR, 2x?, at least 2.2-2.3x with tight image) was reasonable I don't think we're in this mess to begin with. You have an overpair, if we're against an overpair we're being re-raised pre with a hand greater than 99s almost 100% of the time (right?).

Out of interest, outcome was?

It's also interesting to look at this in terms of effective stacks.

You have 30 BBs going into the hand.
Villian has 80 BBs,

In example 1 (the way it played out):

Pre-action there is 2BB in the middle antes/blinds.

Preflop action there is: 2+2+2 (500ish blinds, 500 bet, 500 call)

6 BBs in the middle coming down to the flop.
Flop is 6 so maximum continuation bet is around 5, you bet 2.5.

The pot going into the turn is 11BBs

This leaves you with a stack of 25.5BBs; villain with 75.5BBs - far too much wriggle room; and not enough pressure on the opponent. He can still get paid off if he pairs his overcards and he's putting less risk in drawing with airy fairy bets facing him.

In example 2 (larger PFR; larger CB)

2BBS in the middle pre-action. (blinds/antes)

2.5BB raise; 2.5BB call.

7BB Flop; CB is 6BB; 6BB call

20BB Turn (instead of 11BBs)

You have a 21BB stack
Villian has a 71BB stack.

With this you're closing the pot down on the turn instead of on the river. If you want to raise with high PPs other than for stealing blinds you have to keep applying the pressure imo. In this situation we can bet as low as 8 on the turn for the bet to seem like an all in to the villain. You're risking 8 he's risking 21 because he knows he can't throw you off at this stage regardless of your holdings. The way it was played allowed him to min-raise you and make you doubt your hand when it shouldn't have come down to that in the first place.

If he has a set it's very difficult to get away from unless he re-raises the flop as you're OOP and have to apply pressure, which is why we should aim to limit these sort of hands from earlier positions because they're an ass to play when people have more than 15BBs (or 15PFR calls, in fact), the threshold for +ev set-mining.

I hope this makes sense and isn't me talking out my ass, particularly in front of OMG who I've read posts by and you're very lucky to be receiving his opinion!

Perhaps have a look through your HH for situations where you've PFR pairs 8-10s and have been cold called where you're OOP on a flop with an overpair, if you have the benefit of extensive samples, and assess how each scenario played out.