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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

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Old 08-05-2012, 05:56 PM   #1
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$35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

Okay, so I was clueless in this spot as to wheter it mathwise was a shove or fold.

Lets just say it was readless and statsless, besides from the fact that I have shoved 2 maybe 3 times last 10 hands.

I suspect being 55+%ish against UTG-range, but besides that I could not figure this spot out

Can somebody give me:

1. some numbers
2. arguments based on experience as to the villians behinds tendencies vs our stack and shoving once again

$32.13+$2.87 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 05/08/2012 23:48:47 CET [05/08/2012 17:48:47 ET]
Bord '596828201 7' 9-max Knappen er på plads #2
Plads 1: 0verc00ked (3815 i chips)
Plads 2: cabetza23 (2361 i chips)
Plads 3: flashhash (5465 i chips)
Plads 5: mikdesik (1220 i chips)
Plads 6: Durrden (920 i chips)
Plads 7: msm89dk (3745 i chips)
Plads 8: *$pAAce80* (1910 i chips)
Plads 9: bicycle1212 (1985 i chips)
0verc00ked: poster ante 25
cabetza23: poster ante 25
flashhash: poster ante 25
mikdesik: poster ante 25
Durrden: poster ante 25
msm89dk: poster ante 25
*$pAAce80*: poster ante 25
bicycle1212: poster ante 25
flashhash: poster small blind 125
mikdesik: poster big blind 250
*** KORT ***
Givet til msm89dk [K Q]
Durrden: raiser 645 til 895 og er all-in
msm89dk: ?
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:02 AM   #2
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Re: $35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

He has less than 4bb, you have little choice but to get it in. Sucks slightly that stacks sizes mean you can't reraise/bail to further action so it's a bit of a grit your teeth moment.
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Old 08-06-2012, 11:58 AM   #3
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Re: $35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

Clear reshove. If he is a reg he is shoving close to ATC, probably 100%. I would imagine we have more like 60% vs his range. Yes, we are a little deeper than we would like to be, but only 2 of the players still to act cover, so our tournament life will not often be at risk. I think it is closer to a high five the monitor moment than a 'grit your teeth moment' as SngNit puts it.
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Old 08-06-2012, 03:35 PM   #4
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Re: $35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

he is a reg but he is far below 100%, still getting it in
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Old 08-07-2012, 10:26 AM   #5
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Re: $35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

I'm not concerned about the shortie.. I know I'm ahead of his range, and said 55%+, but thought closer to 60% just as you did matt.

The case is, with my current image of shoving light, I expect the players behind to enter the pot lighter, and I was just clueless as to the EV of this spot, because I expected to get called of light, and so many to act behind me. Just thought maybe it was better to wait for a better spot.

I meen on paper now it seems kind of standard to get it in, but I found myself kinda puzzled in the situation, because I had the rare uncertainty of not knowing if it was +EV. It was especially, if not only, the stacksizes that confused me.

Can anyone do some math, taking into account the villians behind me calling range and our % against UTG shover? Also obv taking into account that we put in full eff stack against the villians behind us, and only 3,5x against the UTG raiser.

As to the statement of UTG shoving light, I agree, but I don't really think anyone shoves 100% from UTG in that spot? He clearly shoves almost all his Kx tho, which makes it yummy for us
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:24 PM   #6
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Re: $35 180m: KQo clueless UTG+1 midgame

the math takes too long manually to write/do.
most regs don't shove literally atc, most are wide though. atc is pretty bad
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