Originally Posted by Aliquantum
This just serves to highlight that its a very minor -$ev call at best, and that ICM does not look at a hand in the context of ongoing gameplay. It takes a snapshot of the scenario in a vacuum, and I think we need to acknowledge that.
I understand that sometimes we need to make plays with blind pressure but I'm not too sure if this is going to be the best spot to be taking. I'm not sure what ICM model/variables you are using in your calculations, but to me the $ev lost by calling here seems to be quite a bit more than most of the spots you consider taking on the final table. I was definitely overreacting calling this ICM suicide, but I just saw that the red $ number was lower than spots I usually consider. I try and distance myself from the cards and ranges, and instead think about my thresholds of $ev I am willing to take. We gladly fold spots with these prize pool implications all the time, I'm seriously wondering why we suddenly choose this one. Maybe I just play too much like an ICM nit who knows...
The blind pressure thingy is something that interests me a lot. Sometimes I think it is A++ reasoning, and sometimes I doubt it a bit. It's not like we don't get dealt cards in the next few hands, but yea our stack being taxed sorta suxors.
I ran through what the next few hands will look like if we fold here:
We get dealt two random cards on the button, and have 20.93% of the prize pool. The act of FOLDING here is going to net us anywhere between 0.06% and .11% of the prize pool giving SB and BB various shoving and calling ranges. On average we can probably expect to gain something like 0.15->0.24% of the prize pool (we get g00d cards and can shove sometimes!) depending on how badly our opponents are playing.
If we are still 3handed at this point, the stacks will definitely vary a lot in sizes, but I'm just keeping them the same size to make my life easy (and calculations innaccurate).
Here if we fold our hand on the big blind and button gets the chips, we are indeed down to 20.11% of the prize pool. This is definitely a worse outcome than the ATo call gives us. If I understand correctly this is the argument for calling here. Here is my problem with this logic:
This 20.11% situation assumes that:
The big blind folds when we fold ATo P = ~80->87%
We do not get a +EV hand to shove on the button P = 70->85%
We fold button and SB and BB are not all in = P = 77%->82%
This will only happen between 44% and 60% of the time depending on opponents ranges (I tested using lots of different ranges). We actually don't even get to this big blind spot very often. In addition to this:
-Assuming we are playing well, EVERY SINGLE of these 'branch situations' gives us tournament equity in the long run. I'm way too lazy to figure out specifics here, but the equity gained from these branches need to be considered just as much as the equity LOST from the big blind hitting us branch. I think it should be more than enough to make up for the small chance (see below) we go down to 20.11%.
-Once we are in the big blind branch, the only way our big blind gets shipped over to the shortstack is when HE shoves and both of us fold. You can take this 44-60% of the time at least cut it in half (probably way more). If the big stack gets the chips, it really isn`t a big deal here, we are only down to around 20.4% equity. If the shortstack and bigstack get all in, we are quite happy! And this is only in the 44-60% of the time we get to this situation in the first place!
Please let me know if some of my logic is wrong here, it took me a bunch of time to wrap my head around the right way to approach it. I gave a loose and tight range for every spot to see how things change, and as you can see I don`t think it makes a huge difference. If the ICM numbers are a few % off it`s because I am using the Ben Roberts ICM model, another thing that shouldn`t change too much.