3.5r K8s defend from bb vs ep raise - MTT Poker Strategy

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3.5r K8s defend from bb vs ep raise

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02-28-2017 , 05:22 PM

BTN_Clique

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 289

Poker Stars, $3.30 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37655304

MP3: 4,454 (14.8 bb)
CO: 9,480 (31.6 bb)
BTN: 3,845 (12.8 bb)
SB: 12,090 (40.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 9,221 (30.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,383 (24.6 bb)
MP1: 3,814 (12.7 bb)
MP2: 9,482 (31.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

UTG+2 raises to 600, 6 folds, Hero calls 300

Flop: (1,550) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 600, Hero calls 600

Turn: (2,750) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 1,375, Hero calls 1,375

River: (5,500) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 1,200, Hero folds

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botched this hand up pretty bad methinks. prolly better to checkraise flop to 1700 jam turn or maybe call river as played ? would appreciate any and all opinions

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02-28-2017 , 07:31 PM

flamekiddo25

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 162

pre and flop is fine. i would fold ott, most of the time K will not be a good out for us

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03-01-2017 , 06:53 PM

SVPE

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 18

Folding turn ... dont think there is implied odds..
+ AX is a big part of his raising range from early
As played im also folding river..

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03-04-2017 , 05:51 AM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

If the river always checks through when a flush card comes then we lose 299 chips:

9/46 * 5500 = 1076.
1076 - 1375 = -299

If we think we can actually win unimproved 6% of the time (e.g. weaker draws that don't fire the third barrel perhaps on a diamond or the board pairing) then its ok.

Another way to look at implied odds is this
1375 to bet, * 46/9 = needs to be a 7028 win - so the actual pot plus another 1528 from his stack if we win. Sounds like a big ask on average though of course we stack him the times he has a weaker club draw.

It's pretty close anyway, I don't have an opinion either way.

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