PokerStars - $3.30+$0.20|50/100 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 27.07 BB (VPIP: 19.03, PFR: 15.17, 3Bet Preflop: 4.27, Hands: 431)
BB: 31.74 BB (VPIP: 56.25, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
UTG: 7.82 BB (VPIP: 16.62, PFR: 14.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.05, Hands: 677)
UTG+1: 15.71 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 14.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 210)
MP: 42.81 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP+1: 65.04 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+2: 21.13 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 16)
Hero (CO): 23.95 BB
BTN: 25.86 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 16)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 9 9

UTG raises to 7.72 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 21.03 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 23.85 BB and is all-in, fold, SB raises to 26.97 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop: (78.35 BB, 4 players) Q A 2

Turn: (78.35 BB, 4 players) 8

River: (78.35 BB, 4 players) A



Ok HRC hated this. But HRC is ICM based and UTG is decent reg will know the limitations of model and will shove a fair bit wider then the 15.7% hrc assigned.

Early days but H/J has already proved to be a super loose fish.

Am I adjusting to far from GTO here. The default HRC value for 99 for this spot was a whopping -1.9. Which I think is the highest minus value ive ever had.

Both villains who acted before me did indeed show up with hands out of hrc default accepted ranges. If I reassign utg range to a fairly wide 27% and H/j range to a ridiculous 28% range (which is mad but in character as observed) then 99 comes out as a very slight +0.05. Which is bloody marginal as we are so far from GTO.

Aren't you still doing it with chipEV at this stage?

Taking a meta-view, I'm not sure UTG has a special motivation to go big or go home here. It's true he has to pay the BB next time, then the SB, but then he has 7 hands with no blinds to pay. I'd actually say he's in a nice position relative to his number of chips as he has the only real "2-bet" stack and everyone else has to optimize their strategy for 3-bet and 4-bet stack poker and not the 2-bet stack poker they are playing against him.

What range does HRC give the MP+2? Pretty surprised by his showdown. If he was playing something more like 77+, AJs+, AJo+ then yes you're crushed.

I'd maybe consider the call if I was in the blinds with the two shoves in front but 99 is too marginal a spot vs the MP+2s range given that you could be crippled.

However in the actual hand, I think it's an even more clear fold with three still to act. OK they're not going to show up with monsters too much but any further players that go all in drastically reduce your chances of getting out alive.

My calling range would be real tight here, JJ+ and AK

If anything in normal circumstances you are going to want to call slightly tighter than hrc chip ev, being this is still rebuy period you are going to want to go significantly tighter imo.

pff rebuy period ya lucky if I'm folding 77