This is a $7 45 man on stars.
So looking at HRC if everyones nash then he should be shoving 21.5%. Now I am guessing from my experience that his range will be stronger than 21.5%. But Vs a random what range would it be reasonable to think hes playing here??

My guess would be something like 12.8%. so 66+, A9o, A7s, K10s, KQo, QJs,
I think population average would be somewhere around there. would anyone care to share their thoughts? Thanks.


PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 6.91 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 36)
UTG: 7.36 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG+1: 9.14 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: 13.52 BB (VPIP: 15.99, PFR: 15.43, 3Bet Preflop: 7.91, Hands: 691)
MP+1: 8.15 BB (VPIP: 19.99, PFR: 16.59, 3Bet Preflop: 9.85, Hands: 2,454)
Hero (CO): 16.68 BB
BTN: 10.39 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 62)
SB: 15 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 14.31, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 1,851)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 10.26 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 5.51 BB and is all-in

Flop: (20.52 BB, 2 players) 5 9 J

Turn: (20.52 BB, 2 players) 3

River: (20.52 BB, 2 players) 8

UTG+1 shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)
BTN shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 19%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
BTN wins 20.52 BB

I think his range is even stronger than your guess here. It feels bad (and I play these games enough myself to know about that :P ), but he is on average gonna be much tighter than your assumed 12.8%.
A 3.5x from a random is gonna be stronger than a non-all-in-shove from a reg obv., and I do believe even for some regs your range barely matches (since, lets be honest, even nowdays regs can be really bad in their ranges).
Usually a EP non-all in raise like this I would always assume to be reasonably strong, unless we have stats on villain to prove otherwise.
I really probably put him on TT+, AQo+, AJs maybe, it will probably seem fishy to many reading this, but this is my personal thought.

Yeah I would toss this.

Rather than thinking conventionally about a range, we need to assign weightings to the different hands in the range. For a lot of players this is the nuts. It's also true that there are other players who can have other hands, but overall those combos still have to be discounted relative to TT+ which would be played this way by pretty much all players who ever make this type of raise.

If I had to guess a specific hand, I'd actually say this kind of "please don't flat me" sizing looks a lot like JJ.

Well, If it was a standard shove from an unknown villain, I would guess his range to be a bit tighter than nash something around 14% (33+,A7s+,ATo+, KJo+, KTs+, QJs) against which 77 are on the edge. Given the ridiculous oraise I would adjust to it and think his range is tighter than that, but I still think we cannot make huge guesses and fold TTs or so given he has 9bbs and possibly make a big mistake. I would give him range of something like 66+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs against which we can call with 99+, AQs+, AKo.

Against a late position raise id shove 77 almost always, but he raises of from early , and raising so he is comitted to call ....
Looks like a bad fishy induce for value and im calling very tight here JJ+ AK ish....
May be influenced by the result though so dont post that next time :-)

I have to disagree. i think your range is the kind of range we would expect a person to have if we knew their range was strong. yes we know its stronger on average but we dont know that it isnt an agro fish thats making that bet with A5s. I am seeing that kind of play a lot more now, I honestly think players are changing betting their short stacks more with weaker hands...why not? if people assign them a range that you did then theres a lot of value in doing that with weaker hands.

Its a fair point but I do feel peoples ranges are loosening up in that spot a lot more now. TBH I could probably run a filter on PT4 on all the hands I have seen recently that come into that kind of category and went to showdown.

Also a random has a decent chance of being a fish. their idea of what a strong hand pre flop is might vary a fair amount from a decent regs idea of a strong hand. maybe A8s seems like the nuts with 9bb.

These kind of goofy raise sizes from short stacks are usually premiums in my experience.