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.50 45 man - bubble play with KTo .50 45 man - bubble play with KTo

07-10-2012 , 01:04 PM
Hand as below...

PokerStars - $3.19+$0.31|600/1200 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 9,303.00
BTN: 1,360.00
SB: 15,544.00
Hero (BB): 9,844.00
UTG: 14,333.00
UTG+1: 10,245.00
MP: 6,871.00

CO posts ante 75.00, BTN posts ante 75.00, SB posts ante 75.00, Hero posts ante 75.00, UTG posts ante 75.00, UTG+1 posts ante 75.00, MP posts ante 75.00, SB posts SB 600.00, Hero posts BB 1,200.00

Pre Flop: (2325.00) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 15,469.00 and is all-in, hero ???

Villain was running about 28/25 on 30 odd hands. He was 2/3 on steals. I think he would be pushing very wide here (if not any 2), but with the real short stack is this a easy fold? If I win I'm in a really strong spot.

Thoughts?

Thanks.
07-10-2012 , 02:06 PM
By SngWiz even if we put SB range on ATC, we still can call only so wide: 77+,AQ+,ATs+, so its a fold.
07-10-2012 , 02:16 PM
Fairly easy fold given stack setup. Also looks as though you're ITM...
07-10-2012 , 03:31 PM
I would call here definitely ITM.
07-10-2012 , 04:06 PM
Sorry it is in the money. My bad!
07-10-2012 , 04:07 PM
Still an interesting spot...
07-10-2012 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs
I would call here definitely ITM.
You think it's an easy call? Why's that?
07-10-2012 , 04:39 PM
interessting hand. i want really know if this is a call or a fold.
07-10-2012 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robinho2611
You think it's an easy call? Why's that?
Not an easy, this is prob close to bottom, but I dont really care much about the shortstack now that we itm, you`ll have to get the chips in a next few hands anyway, given the SB tendencies, seems like an ok spot to call, hope to double up and get yourself in a good spot for future hands.
07-10-2012 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs
Not an easy, this is prob close to bottom, but I dont really care much about the shortstack now that we itm, you`ll have to get the chips in a next few hands anyway, given the SB tendencies, seems like an ok spot to call, hope to double up and get yourself in a good spot for future hands.
I don't get why being ITM makes it OK to gamble so much more. Yes, 8th-7th is a bigger payjump than 7th-6th, but not by much and ICM must hate this call surely? I wouldn't say we're in a desperate situation, nor do we have good pot odds to call. Plenty deep enough to make moves later on.
Say there's an MP2 here, making it 8 handed with an average stack, do you fold now because it's the bubble?
07-11-2012 , 01:39 AM
Yeah, ICM definitely hates it, I just dont like ICM in these spots either, because it doesnt count in the future hands. You kind of are desperate, because you cant let the blinds hit you again. I think its ok if you fold here, but you still should be a little bit wider than ICM suggestions. This now being pretty marginal would make it really bad on the bubble, so yeah, I would fold.
07-11-2012 , 03:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs
Yeah, ICM definitely hates it, I just dont like ICM in these spots either, because it doesnt count in the future hands. You kind of are desperate, because you cant let the blinds hit you again. I think its ok if you fold here, but you still should be a little bit wider than ICM suggestions. This now being pretty marginal would make it really bad on the bubble, so yeah, I would fold.
Fair point about future equity. Still don't get why it's different on the bubble though. The pay jump here is $3.60 instead of $5 on the bubble... I don't think this is significant though. Is there another reason?
And we're still 8BB deep. I wouldn't go as far to say we're "desperate". Even though it's not ideal, it's hardly a disaster having 2K of blinds go through us.
07-11-2012 , 06:08 PM
easy fold
07-12-2012 , 05:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs
Yeah, ICM definitely hates it, I just dont like ICM in these spots either, because it doesnt count in the future hands. You kind of are desperate, because you cant let the blinds hit you again. I think its ok if you fold here, but you still should be a little bit wider than ICM suggestions. This now being pretty marginal would make it really bad on the bubble, so yeah, I would fold.
totally agree with everything.
07-12-2012 , 05:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robinho2611
Fair point about future equity. Still don't get why it's different on the bubble though. The pay jump here is $3.60 instead of $5 on the bubble... I don't think this is significant though. Is there another reason?
And we're still 8BB deep. I wouldn't go as far to say we're "desperate". Even though it's not ideal, it's hardly a disaster having 2K of blinds go through us.
Even on the bubble, you could consider calling if you really thought the guy was very wide. ICM hates it, but ICM also (in addition to fEV) doesn't understand who YOU are as a player. Example, if you always play 7 and 15$ 45 mans, then you are in this $3 45 man then obviously it is not as important! But ICM makes everyone the same. If Phil Ivey played this game, it would tell Phil Ivey to fold just like a guy who plays 10 cent games. But that would be silly for Phil Ivey to fold and listen to ICM in a $3 45 man.

Hope this helps.
07-12-2012 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitlr
Even on the bubble, you could consider calling if you really thought the guy was very wide. ICM hates it, but ICM also (in addition to fEV) doesn't understand who YOU are as a player. Example, if you always play 7 and 15$ 45 mans, then you are in this $3 45 man then obviously it is not as important! But ICM makes everyone the same. If Phil Ivey played this game, it would tell Phil Ivey to fold just like a guy who plays 10 cent games. But that would be silly for Phil Ivey to fold and listen to ICM in a $3 45 man.

Hope this helps.
Hi. Thanks for the comment.

About ICM not understanding who we are as players... Surely if we have an edge over the field, we should be looking for spots with a bigger edge and not simply accepting a marginal +cEV (and IMO -$EV) spot because we can do better. If we don't have an edge then I can see calling as we're not going to get anything better. I mean if we go out (call it 40% of the time) we can no longer use our edge. When we fold, we will be dealt more hands 100% of the time and be able to play each one at a higher standard than the average 3/45er. Is this flawed thinking?

I do understand yours and Mavs' points though - has definitely made me think!
07-12-2012 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitlr
Even on the bubble, you could consider calling if you really thought the guy was very wide. ICM hates it, but ICM also (in addition to fEV) doesn't understand who YOU are as a player. Example, if you always play 7 and 15$ 45 mans, then you are in this $3 45 man then obviously it is not as important! But ICM makes everyone the same. If Phil Ivey played this game, it would tell Phil Ivey to fold just like a guy who plays 10 cent games. But that would be silly for Phil Ivey to fold and listen to ICM in a $3 45 man.

Hope this helps.
So if I'm a better player than Phil Ivey what should I do???
07-12-2012 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robinho2611
Hi. Thanks for the comment.

About ICM not understanding who we are as players... Surely if we have an edge over the field, we should be looking for spots with a bigger edge and not simply accepting a marginal +cEV (and IMO -$EV) spot because we can do better. If we don't have an edge then I can see calling as we're not going to get anything better. I mean if we go out (call it 40% of the time) we can no longer use our edge. When we fold, we will be dealt more hands 100% of the time and be able to play each one at a higher standard than the average 3/45er. Is this flawed thinking?

I do understand yours and Mavs' points though - has definitely made me think!
I dont think you have much of edge with that stack anyway, just have to pick up a hand and get lucky. Now with 20k stack, you can shove, call, raise/fold, all these options, thats when your real edge comes into play imo.
07-12-2012 , 11:01 PM
Don't like the Protege camp's thinking on this at all. Saying you're ignoring the short stack is one thing, but there isn't just one short stack. We are effectivley joint 3rd in chips here, definitely no place to be taking -ev choices. Well my bad actually, I do make a -ev call here cause I prolly call 66, A9s.
07-13-2012 , 01:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mavs
I dont think you have much of edge with that stack anyway, just have to pick up a hand and get lucky. Now with 20k stack, you can shove, call, raise/fold, all these options, thats when your real edge comes into play imo.
Since the other stacks are still short if we double up we can't really r/f but we gain some FE against the stacks to our left. It's not enough to make the call in this hand though.
07-17-2012 , 10:02 AM
I do fold since there is the short one of cards and in given case it goes with a wide range be said 22+A2o+K3o ect ... you are going to go to 60/40 and still you have very much margin to maneuver ... still not these driven to despair like to do this call....

      
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