goodmorning guys i play sngs for quite a while. and however there are alot of spots that i dont know which move is better and more profitable..so here we are on the bubble. villain has got vpip=25pfr=16 raisefirst=24 and tot3bet=19,0.. i know that his range is too light he 3bets me for steal but do you believe i must risk my life with AJo? i really dont know.. i will say you that i on this hand i folded.. i will be happy with answers guys.. i really will be happy..


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
MP2: 7,604 (12.7 bb)
Hero (MP3): 9,528 (15.9 bb)
CO: 5,160 (8.6 bb)
BTN: 8,098 (13.5 bb)
SB: 13,404 (22.3 bb)
BB: 7,561 (12.6 bb)
UTG+1: 5,380 (9 bb)
UTG+2: 4,778 (8 bb)
MP1: 5,987 (10 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J A
4 folds, Hero raises to 1,250, 2 folds, SB raises to 13,354 and is all-in, hero?

Looking at the stacks with 16bb only the SB has us covered.
So to avoid a shove from others, with like 77-TT, KQs, i would just jam pre.
Expecting to pick it up often, sometimes flipping and sometimes it sucks when they have it..

As played i fold as well.. but it sucks.. because it probably feels to him that you don't want to GII against him and that you therefore raise instead of shove what you normally would do <15bb deep..

Calling or folding depend on a few things in this spot:
In primis, nationality of the villain; South america player = snapcall regardless if rec or reg; European player = see below;
2- villain stats; if he's 40/10/15, i'd fold since he's premium; contrary, if he's 40/35/15 i'd call easily;
3- if he's reg, snap call!
4 if nit 15/10 depends on history

How many hands did you have with him then? So you can know how precise are his stats.
(They might represent close to nothing with a 19 hand sample)

actually nash sais 26% for SB 3betting.
Your calling range is then: 2.1%, JJ+ AKs (hrc)

so 19% is a small range in this particular hand and your calling range is even tighter ( in fact more -EV, range is the same)

good fold!
Keep going!
Teo

i had 106 hands my friend

so i can shove guys preflop? or i could play like this or i can call and i would see on the flop..RIGHT?

it depends on your oppenent...he has 19% 3bet...very huge but you have only 106 hands. 25/16 looks fine. In my opinion you have maximum a coin flip. Maybe he has e a Pocket Pair, but i think he shoves here with better aces. And he dont shove with broadways i would say. Your Open is not from the late position. I think i would fold....

thank you poker ivey

You should avoid flipping with 16bb and 9 players left, just let the hand go. I think your range should be 99+, AQs+ here to call. I wouldn't think too hard on raise folding AJo, if you were a little shallower it would be just a shove, if his stack were shallower, an easy call.

Exactly. This is the biggest non-satellite bubble on pokerstars and it's 1st-stack vs 2nd-stack.

What software did you use for that? What does it say he can jam/we should open?

This is why you should just open jam or fold here - with this a jam.

EDIT: I just noticed this is one off the bubble. It doesn't change my opinion though.

Nash jamming ranges are

Hero 28.1%, 33+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A2o K3s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+

called by
CO 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+
overcalls
BU 1.4%, QQ+
SB 1.8%, JJ+
BB 1.4%, QQ+

called by
BU 1.8%, JJ+
overcalls
SB 0.9%, KK+
BB 0.5%, AA

called by
SB 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+
overcall
BB 0.9%, KK+

called by
BB 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+

Put the pressure on them, don't let them put it on you.

You can just jam this pre if you're very likely to get exploited by chipleader.

R/c chipleader is going to be super bad ICM-wise.

Players will generally not understand ICM here too much and call your shove wider than perhaps they should, which is why those Nash calling ranges seem a little tight compared to what will actually call you there.

thank s guys