Should we wiff this spot vs the 3x from unknown? ..seems like 55/45 odds + there are other big stacks behind

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($13,240)
BB ($9,394)
UTG ($9,495)
UTG+1 ($9,110)
Hero ($13,915)
CO ($2,955)
BTN ($17,714)

Dealt to Hero J J

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1,800, Hero raises to $13,865 (AI),

Cant see myself doing anything different

Pretty trivial shove without you giving us some absurdly specific read.

hey guys see it this way, we are just before the FT, with 13k that is pretty unusual.
We should not give away this stacksize to make him fold or get a flip or worse when called. I doubt he calls there with TT. And what are TT that are just 6 combos.

Assuming our future edge with this stacksize i assumed shoving here is spew!

We can't fold. Flatting to play postflop 15bb effective doesn't sound too appealing when a number of boards put you in an awkward spot. You're ahead of his range and stack sizes are pretty nut perfect for a rejam.

I really think his calling range includes TT and a heap worse, but it sounds like you might have some sort of read that suggests otherwise?

Anyways, nh.

i mean fold not flat. With less than 9k i think its a standard shove.

We need about 44% equity vs his 3bet calling range, so he should be calling TT+,AQs+,AKo to make it break even for us. If you assume he is raise/folding some of hands or calling lighter that previously mentioned range thats a great calling spot.

Even if we call and loose we have 7bb left and can play push/fold game.

Plus you shouldn't be afraid of him, he is the one who can bust, he should be afraid of you.

i am not afraid of him, i am afraid to spew off my future equity i have with this stacksize for a stacksize that doesnt really increase my equity much more.

Not shoving, 3750/deciding.

Your only shoving for 15 effective BB's here, anything but a jam is pretty bad imo.

3 bet/deciding vs a 15bb stack seems absurd. how can we make it 3750 and then fold to a 9k shove?

just a very standard shove

It's not HIM I'm deciding against, did u notice we're not HU?

Also just realised, this isn't pre FT at all, it's post bubble.

its a shove, but its not as trivial as you guys make it out to be. Chip gained is less important than chip lost.

Not only did villain open from UTG, he opened for 3x. His range is pretty strong, his calling range is flipping or better against JJ.

IMO we could find a fold here in some slightly different spots.

i think his raising size is a great tell, he wouldnt do it with premium like QQ+, AK.
so i wouldnt be afraid to get it in.