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MTTSNG Discussion and analysis of MTTSNGs.

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Old 08-18-2012, 05:45 PM   #1
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3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

Hi.
Villain is random. All I can say is I haven't noticed him 4x or be particularly aggressive before. I'm sure if he had I would remember...
What do we do and why?
Thanks



    Poker Stars, $3.19 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13743252

    MP2: 13,113 (32.8 bb)
    MP3: 8,441 (21.1 bb)
    Hero (CO): 5,469 (13.7 bb)
    BTN: 4,274 (10.7 bb)
    SB: 6,207 (15.5 bb)
    BB: 6,369 (15.9 bb)
    UTG+1: 4,205 (10.5 bb)
    UTG+2: 11,447 (28.6 bb)
    MP1: 7,975 (19.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q A
    3 folds, MP2 raises to 1,600, 5 folds




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    Robinho2611 is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 08-18-2012, 07:12 PM   #2
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    Re: 3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

    I'm just folding for better spots.
    SngNit is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 08-18-2012, 10:37 PM   #3
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    Re: 3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

    I'd fold.

    Even if we give villain a 20% raising range (dependent on player of course - but i doubt he 4x 20% in this spot) and if we give him a calling range of 6%, AQo it's close.

    However, don't really think he makes it 4x in this spot with 20%, making it a fold and waiting for a better spot

    but what do i know...
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    Old 08-18-2012, 10:42 PM   #4
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    Re: 3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

    Might need to double check the math there Forex - if he's raising 20%, calling 6%, it's ridiculously profitable.

    I'm putting it in. If he has a premium, he gets a note, I fire up a new sng.
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    Old 08-18-2012, 10:49 PM   #5
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    Re: 3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aliquantum View Post
    Might need to double check the math there Forex - if he's raising 20%, calling 6%, it's ridiculously profitable.

    I'm putting it in. If he has a premium, he gets a note, I fire up a new sng.
    My bad, for some strange reason(need to go to bed asap lol) i thought this was the final table and made my calculations in ICM mode.

    yes, if he's r/c 20%/6% it's highly profitable to shove, but more often than not I have seen players do these 4x raises with hands they don't know how to play post-flop when they have a <20 stack, like 88+, KQ+, KQs+ ATs+, AJo+, and with the KQ put in you are a slight underdog:


    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    1,726,002,432 games 0.000 secs 345,200,486,400 games/sec

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 51.809% 45.66% 06.15% 788073252 106158444.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
    Hand 1: 48.191% 42.04% 06.15% 725612292 106158444.00 { AQo }


    ---


    if we don't factor in KQ and assume he calls you every time with those hands


    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    1,479,430,656 games 0.000 secs 295,886,131,200 games/sec

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 56.026% 48.95% 07.08% 724108464 104760636.00 { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }
    Hand 1: 43.974% 36.89% 07.08% 545800920 104760636.00 { AQo }


    ---

    1,479,430,656 games 0.000 secs 295,886,131,200 games/sec

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 56.026% 48.95% 07.08% 724108464 104760636.00 { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }
    Hand 1: 43.974% 36.89% 07.08% 545800920 104760636.00 { AQo }


    ---

    1,726,002,432 games 0.000 secs 345,200,486,400 games/sec

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 51.809% 45.66% 06.15% 788073252 106158444.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
    Hand 1: 48.191% 42.04% 06.15% 725612292 106158444.00 { AQo }


    ---


    so it would be a fold.

    at least that's what i have seen
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    Old 08-19-2012, 10:11 AM   #6
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    Re: 3.5/45. AQ vs 4x on FT (9 left)

    I would shove here to his "normal" size open, but 4x is confusing, so I would prolly fold and pray that he will get it in and we see his hand and make a note about what he 4x pre.
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