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.50 180man AJs btn - call 2 all-ins or snap-fold? .50 180man AJs btn - call 2 all-ins or snap-fold?

03-16-2015 , 11:12 AM
Hey everyone - I'm looking at a hand with genuinely awful results thinking that I made an amazing move, or a terrible mistake


    Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35475081

    Hero (BB): 4,373 (14.6 bb)
    UTG+2: 6,434 (21.4 bb)
    MP1: 2,406 (8 bb)
    MP2: 4,076 (13.6 bb)
    MP3: 3,982 (13.3 bb)
    CO: 3,225 (10.8 bb)
    BTN: 3,936 (13.1 bb)
    SB: 2,435 (8.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
    UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 2,381 and is all-in, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 3,957 and is all-in, 3 folds, Hero calls 3,657

    Flop: (10,645) T 3 J (3 players, 2 are all-in)
    Turn: (10,645) J (3 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (10,645) K (3 players, 2 are all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: 10,645 pot
    Final Board: T 3 J J K
    Hero showed J A and lost (-3,982 net)
    MP1 showed 2 2 and lost (-2,406 net)
    MP3 showed T T and won 10,645 (6,663 net)



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    At the time I looked up UTG+1's shoving range, and used that to base my reasoning on - I'm epically ahead of most of it. MP1 is claiming to be ahead of it too, but his shove looks like a standard isolation shove.

    UTG has 8bb, MP1 has 13bb, and there is a little over 2bb on the table. I have 15bb and it's going to cost me 13bb to potentially win 26bb - I'm being paid even money for what I believe is a 1:3 shot at the pot, so I make the call.

    In hindsight I suspect my reasoning is great, if I have a huge stack. On account of my limited stack it could be polite described as high-variance (or perhaps more honestly described as insane :P)

    Is my reasoning sound? Or totally bats**t crazy? And, if this would be a reasonable move with a deep-stack, how deep does the stack need to be?
    03-16-2015 , 06:35 PM
    i think it's a good call, AJs AQo 88 looks fine to me in this spot
    03-17-2015 , 03:24 AM
    He shouldn't really flat anything and give a tactical choice and/or reads to later players. He likes his hand despite the early position shove and number of players to act. Imho you were lucky to have two live cards this time.
    03-20-2015 , 01:47 PM
    readless its a fold, we need reads/stats that either or both are loose to call this

    Nash UTG+1 push 21.3%, 22+ A2s+ A9o+ K9s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s

    Nash UTG+3 call 10.1%, 44+ A9s+ ATo+

    Nash BB overcall 6%, 77+ AQs+ AQo+

    unknowns are never as wide as Nash so our overcall range must tighten even more
    03-21-2015 , 06:40 PM
    I would fold, 13bb isn't great but still you're average stack. wait for better spots
    03-23-2015 , 08:21 AM
    I fold here for reasons mentioned before.
    Villains are usually not even close to as wide as NASH. Based on experience (albeit it being limited) people show up with better hands a lot.
    03-23-2015 , 02:33 PM
    Personally I'd probably let this one go, though I think it's close. I think against MP1, we could call off but when MP3 iso's we're probably behind.
    03-26-2015 , 08:42 AM
    Fold, your never ahead here with two people shoving, odds are you are dominated by AK, AQ here and then if not theres very high likelihood of a pocket pair which your behind against slightly anyway, so unless you have them as shoving super wide then fold.
    04-02-2015 , 11:29 AM
    besides, on a 3 way all in, it´s very common for someone to be blocking your Ace outs reducing even more your chances against any pair. So, you´re either dominated or blocked. You would have to rely on hitting a flush. I would have folded
    04-02-2015 , 12:01 PM
    P
    04-03-2015 , 08:33 AM
    Easy fold. AKs QQ+ is a call.

          
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