Pre Flop - Standard open with a suited ace in LP

Flop - Decent flop for me obviously c betting when checked too for value. Check raise is obviously quite a strong play but i still cant fold here with the Nut FD and the potential for the A to still win it for me sometimes.

Turn - Turn cards actually not bad here as it gives me extra outs to win the hand. I put the ranges into equilab to see the percentages.

I put villains range as JJ, 44, 33, AJ, KJ, and KQs, KJs, AJs, QJs
and my equity against this range was 39%

I had to call 520 to win 1040 therefore i need around 33% to break even?

So i called to see one of my miracle outs on the river.

River - river is a brick for my hand and he puts the rest in no choice but to fold in this spot.

Im guessing the villain had some kind of set or AJDD KJDD maybe even AJHH KJHH

No stats on villain since this was like 4 hands in.

Thoughts?

Ads

Actually, you have 39% on the flop - and the flop is a really clear call.
On the turn you have ~30% against the range you defined.
Assume that villain will shove 100% on river no matter what the river is - you have the odds to call.
But if you think villain is capable of reading your hand, you should also consider that it's really really easy to figure out what your hand is. Therefore if a diamond strikes, villain may decide to cut losses.

If they don't shove 100% - I think you should fold on turn.

Sorry yes the equity on turn is 28%

You really only have 11 outs that are good. You may have great equity against KQ but if you are folding when he jams a brick river you don't get to realise it. 5, A, A and A are pretty much just outs to a bluff catcher.

You need 33% but you have at least some implied odds - for example villain may play a weaker diamond draw this way and stack off so I still think it's a call.

I think his line looks bluffy actually but we are not strong enough to make a call on the river - we can't beat all his bluffs like some other unpaired aces he gets here with - and we have no idea how he plays. Some of his semi-bluffs got there too.