2.50 180 man - MTTSNG -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Two Plus Two Forums Archived Forums Strategy MTTSNG

2.50 180 man

...

05-16-2015 , 10:04 AM

Poar12

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 5

Hi this came up last night with 13 players left. Put it through ICMizer today and was surprised to find it was - ev.

only 27 hands on villain 33/19
put in 33% limp range and 30% call push range

Really thought this would be the correct play with villain limping.

Any thoughts explanations would be appreciated.

First post!

Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36411301

SB: 17,061 (8.5 bb)
Hero (BB): 15,846 (7.9 bb)
MP1: 7,363 (3.7 bb)
MP2: 29,253 (14.6 bb)
MP3: 25,555 (12.8 bb)
CO: 11,112 (5.6 bb)
BTN: 16,753 (8.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5

2 folds, MP3 calls 2,000, 3 folds, Hero raises to 15,646 and is all-in, MP3 calls 13,646

Flop: (33,692) 6

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (33,692) 6

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (33,692) 8

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

05-17-2015 , 01:28 PM

sw_emigre

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,671

if I get the #s correctly, you're telling icmizer that he will call your shove with over 90% of the hands he limped with. So you have no FE and a hand that is prob just 50/50 vs his range, with icm calculations I'm not surprised it says -EV.

Normally I'd think you have much more FE than that, and he's only calling your push with 10% or so, 15-20% if he's much more fishy. So maybe recalculate with that as his call a push range and see what it says.

(Though clearly from the spoiler what I ranged him on is way off.)

05-17-2015 , 01:41 PM

mktpppr

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 446

I take a freeplay pre, low-mid Axo does poorly vs limp/call

also, MP3 should be shoving his entire range for 9bb eff, so often this is a trap

05-21-2015 , 02:55 PM

oldskool87

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 843

You have 8 bigs with a possibility at picking up a free pot, getting it all day here and I'm happy about it

...