Anyone letting this go?

Villain is 31/24 over 113 hands 60% steal. He had the CL until about 4 hands previous where he called a 10bb btn jam with 55. He was on my previous table and i had him marked as a fish, since losing the 55 hand he'd gone a bit mad (fish tilt?) jamming pretty much every hand.

I know i'm ahead of his range but it's so thin, not sure if i'm better waiting for a shove spot.

Good call

not a close spot

Yes it is http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#KuXa

call, sorry you lost.

You're right, it actually is a closer spot than it appears because of the relatively big money jump in the 180 payout structure between 4th and 3rd. That said, with your read that the guy had been shoving very wide recently (whether because he was on tilt or something else) I would call this.

no, it's not, 50% is ridic tight.

Call is fine, have to say that i have my doubts about the 'fish' tag..,

Yeah I didn't look him up, think there was a few limps/3x's but that doesn't necessarily mean much.

Been known to mark people wrong based on small samples before

Change it, don't see how you think it's not close.

Obv you can see I decided to take the spot so knew it was +EV but there could have been more +EV spots in the future, wouldn't be hard seeing as this is a 0.2-3% spot (without a margin)

It could be close, but he should be something like 80% which is more like a .7 edge in a spot where we can justify taking a negative edge. The 60% steal stat alone almost assures he's very wide here. That's an aggregate of his SB, BTN, and maybe even CO steals, and this is a spot where he should be wider than normal given that you're bvb and every other spot he will get has to go through the big stack. I'm not trying to be a dick when I say it's not close, I'm just letting you know that if you're hesitating in this spot then you have a major leak because KTo isn't the bottom of your range here and you need to be comfortable calling off with it. If you're experiencing any doubt with this hand then you're probably folding a lot of hands that should call. QTo is a call here, and if you think KTo is close then you're probably snap folding QTo, meaning if your opponent is smart he can shove even wider against you. Based on this guy's stats, I wouldn't put it past him to shove 85%-90% here, potentially ATC, and folding KTo vs a guy who is clearly capable of such a play is terrible. This guy is more likely to be on the loose side of equilibrium and you want to call him tighter than equilibrium, which is an incorrect adjustment and therefore a very bad decision. He is probably printing money off of you in this spot and you need to adjust.

I agree with dgula that this guy is probably not a fish. Just because he limpped or 3x'd doesn't mean he's bad, sometimes those kind of plays are optimal, especially at these micro stakes games. He's likely a solid winner at these stakes, and his stats seem very standard for a winning player.

Yeah while I have many leaks calling too tight from the blinds is not one of them.. if I'm being exploited in these situations it the inverse ie regs shoving tighter than equilibrium.

I don't think he's shoving 60-70% here. We'll put it down to a dif of opinion. Thanks for the input on the hand man

Agree, i would def shove ATC on a BvB situation where is fold it even QT.

Yeah prob a call, ul.

+1