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.5, 180-man Early All-in decision .5, 180-man Early All-in decision

12-13-2015 , 06:55 AM
PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 1,417
BTN: 1,417 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
SB: 1,704 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 1,477 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 1,497 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 1,497 (VPIP: 15.86, PFR: 13.59, 3Bet Preflop: 12.10, Hands: 460)
MP: 1,497 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+1: 1,497 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+2: 1,497 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 16)

9 players post ante of 3, SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 57) Hero has T T

fold, fold, MP raises to 100, fold, fold, Hero calls 100, BTN calls 100, fold, fold

Flop: (357, 3 players) 6 9 5
MP bets 1,394 and is all-in, Hero ?
12-13-2015 , 03:07 PM
Don't hate a call, but if you have the discipline to fold, this is a good spot. Not the best spot, but a good spot.
12-14-2015 , 04:17 AM
I don t think any of them have 87.
I think the raiser is on a flushdraw. BB may also have sd/fd bu i don t worry about this.
As of sets, there is a chance the raiser may have a set, and this is the only possibility i don t like
If he had jj+ i don t think he d donk shove.
This being said, i d call. I ve seen plenty of shoving with draws early phase at this stake.
Otoh, of corse, if you want a better apot to gii, folding is not bad.
12-14-2015 , 05:17 AM
no reads, no stats... so we will have to do with a lot of assumptions.

Imo, this is a fold more than a call.

First of all the action doesn't close when we make a descision. Second, I think villains line looks most like an overpair, draw or set. Not a lot of blufs since it's multiway and villain is first to act. Something like {55+,Axh+,AhJx+,KTh+,QTh+,JTh}.We need about 43% for a cEV neutral call, we've got only 38%. Off course I could be heavily wrong, seeing a lot of spazz early in 180's.

We've invested only 100 so far. Fold and find a better spot.
12-14-2015 , 07:32 AM
Another similar spot:

PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|15/30 Ante 4 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 1,562
SB: 1,511 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BB: 1,383 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 3,285 (VPIP: 16.33, PFR: 13.24, 3Bet Preflop: 10.58, Hands: 304)
UTG+1: 1,500 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: 1,601 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+1: 1,187 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+2: 1,438 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 1,228 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

9 players post ante of 4, SB posts SB 15, BB posts BB 30

Pre Flop: (pot: 81) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, MP raises to 120, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 120, SB calls 105, fold

Flop: (426, 3 players) 5 2 2
SB checks, MP bets 300, Hero ?
12-14-2015 , 07:55 AM
I didnt comment on 1st hand as i felt it was super close. Now im thinking fold but not sure i would in game.

But i think your hand is stronger here in relative terms in comparison to 1st hand. You are ahead of some overpairs and there are less combi drawers possible that have shed loads of equity vs one pair hands, also flop doesnt connect with your range at all apart from flush drawers so villain can be c betting ax for value and protection.

So im not folding 2nd hand and i think we cant call and evaluate turn as to shalow so I shove.
12-14-2015 , 10:45 AM
Yeah, Hero should shove #2. But Hero's equity is thinner than you might think.

Between a 38/30's massive opener range with a small chip surplus, his awareness of stack ratios in 4x'ing 15/30, and a flop like that which crushes his preference for low related junk and pretty much a2c suited...

Tough Villain that.
12-14-2015 , 11:40 PM
call
12-16-2015 , 12:11 AM
first hand is definitely a call. this is a $2.5 game when a dude over shoves like that his range will be sooooo wide, most of the time its not a very strong range.
12-16-2015 , 12:30 AM
Does the pf raise to 5x & 4x resp. makes any difference.

Sent from my A0001 using 2+2 Forums
12-16-2015 , 05:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldskool87
first hand is definitely a call. this is a $2.5 game when a dude over shoves like that his range will be sooooo wide, most of the time its not a very strong range.
Yeah this, all too often they're just gambling that nobody has caught a piece good enough to call a shove with

You'll be surprised how often it's rags even in 3 way, 4 way pots
12-16-2015 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Route27
Does the pf raise to 5x & 4x resp. makes any difference.

Sent from my A0001 using 2+2 Forums
Bit. Just standard openers by someone aware of stack ratio and early stack depths. Not to be read into too much, treat as 2.5x-3x's after ~50/100. If he drops to that, make a note to ignore what seems largish raises.
12-27-2015 , 01:42 AM
Another one:

PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|15/30 Ante 4 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 1,488 (VPIP: 10.26, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 39)
MP+1: 2,495 (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
Hero (MP+2): 1,595
CO: 1,458 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BTN: 1,114 (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: 1,007 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 1,387 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
UTG: 1,488 (VPIP: 9.80, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
UTG+1: 1,468 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 4, SB posts SB 15, BB posts BB 30

Pre Flop: (pot: 81) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 90, fold, BTN calls 90, SB calls 75, BB calls 60

Flop: (396, 4 players) 2 9 6
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 210, fold, fold, BB raises to 1,293 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,083

Turn: (2,982, 2 players) 4

River: (2,982, 2 players) 4

I like to call in these kinda spots but now really confused as I lost most of the showdowns.
12-27-2015 , 03:43 AM
In the above hand, withh two blank cards he needs this to get through 2/3 of the time, with a couple of overs it's more like half the time. Therefore in game theory you should call the top third to top half of your range. You would have plenty of unpaired hands on this board so TT is a call.

I can forsee the objection that this is a $2.50 game so why are we talking about game theory. My answer

1) If these players are so bad then we should get more aggressive brm and move out rather than pick up bad habits.

2) if we underestimate our opponents we lose long term

3) if we overestimate our opponents we win long term, just not by as much as if we made the correct exploitation.

4) if such moves are read as obviously JJ+ then I hope we are making them with trash and semibluffs all the time.

Also your pot odds are 2 to 1 so you should lose most of the showdowns, but more than one third.
12-27-2015 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Route27
Another one:

I like to call in these kinda spots but now really confused as I lost most of the showdowns.
If playing well you should lose a few extra as there is so much in the pot that calling only when you had 50% equity would be giving up lots of chips, and future +$.

This is early so it's about chip ev and it is also easy to calculate what the break even point of a call is for chip ev.

The break even point you get back the same amount as you put in and it then works out that
B.E Hand Equity Needed = amount to call/ (final full pot size) <<< including your call amount.

Final pot size = 2,982
Amount to call = 1,083

Break even point = 1083/2982 = 36.3%

So to get the most out of these occasions you should call with about 36% hand equity.

It depends how you are filtering for these 'kinda spots' and what types of ranges you put the villain on but it could be that losing more than you win is actually a fine state of play. As mentioned above when looking at this, or very similar hands, it is a good play to call with just 36% of the hand equity.

Also, when checking in your database for these type of hands it is much better to look at if the allin adjusted values is positive. This is effectively checking for situations like the above where calling is wise even with reduced hand equity (the program will be effectively calculating that you need 36% in calling this allin hand case, it is what the adjustment is doing but against the exact hand provided held by the villain rather than the sensible inferred range you provide. If enough hands are present in the filter this should produce something like the 'sensible range' for the total and the total will be a good indication of your calling ability for these spots. Looking at one hand this way would be 'results oriented' as it is against a specific villain hand but the total for say 20 similar hands will be a fine indication of your quality. )

      
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