Hello to all.
Villian is 16/12 over hands and is a break even player after 1k games.
Can we find a fold here or a standard shove? im in a bigger rollercoaster last months , in a month i win good and ther other month i lost a lot.
So , my goal now its evaluate some of my hand and see if i can reduce the variance of my game


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 125 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #24026591

SB: 7,954 (6.6 bb)
BB: 39,594 (33 bb)
UTG+2: 14,870 (12.4 bb)
MP1: 17,890 (14.9 bb)
MP2: 12,389 (10.3 bb)
Hero (MP3): 10,175 (8.5 bb)
CO: 17,768 (14.8 bb)
BTN: 11,427 (9.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J A
UTG+2 raises to 14,745 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero ???

Seems close, but with those stats i leaning towards folding. We are almoust always behind, and at best shape just on a coinflip against his range

fold.

Close but I think it is a call.
Potodds 43% and against a 12% range we have 48% equity.
And I think his range can be wider than 12%

Fold. You're better off open-shoving with 34s than calling with AJo.

lol no more of this plz

I think it is close as well, but you aren't taking into account so many people still to act.

Yes I am, because I take 12% into account and I think that is even tight.
If he is any decent with 12bb he would be wider, maybe we could even exclude premiums from his shove range.

> Yes I am, because I take 12% into account and I think that is even tight.

12% isn't tight from UTG+2. And his not shoving 12% from UTG+2 if he plays 16/12.

This is my guess
QQ-22, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+

AJo has 42.5% vs above range.

It's not like you have a huge stack or anything and you basically need to double up to have any decent chance to win this one.

I call this range.

10.0%, 55+ A9s+ ATo+ KQs