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.20 180 man. Is a push on the BTN profitable? .20 180 man. Is a push on the BTN profitable?

05-05-2015 , 06:49 PM
Hi, What would be the thought process that I need to figure out if this is a profitable push? I don't know how to use any software that shows whether this is a good spot to push, raise or fold. Thanks for any help

    Poker Stars, $2.28 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36263521

    SB: 1,390 (9.3 bb)
    BB: 1,433 (9.6 bb)
    UTG+1: 1,888 (12.6 bb)
    UTG+2: 4,186 (27.9 bb)
    MP1: 1,256 (8.4 bb)
    MP2: 2,871 (19.1 bb)
    MP3: 5,970 (39.8 bb)
    CO: 776 (5.2 bb)
    Hero (BTN): 4,877 (32.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with T 9
    6 folds, Hero raises to 4,862 and is all-in, SB calls 1,300 and is all-in, BB folds

    Flop: (3,035) 3 Q 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    Turn: (3,035) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (3,035) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: 3,035 pot
    Final Board: 3 Q 4 3 A
    SB showed J J and won 3,035 (1,645 net)
    Hero showed T 9 and lost (-1,390 net)



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    05-06-2015 , 08:48 AM
    Basically you look at how much dead money you pick up if they both fold and compare it to your average loss if they call - this kind of hand is usually a 45-55* dog against a calling range so multiply 0.45 by the size of the pot to work out how much equity you are getting for your 1300 at risk - usually, if you are doing this calculation at all rather than fist-pump jamming - then the equity will be less than 1300 to show a loss (though not in this case as T9s is a rarely dominated hand good to jam in these situations). Then you decide how likely they are to call and if it's worth taking risking that average loss if called to pick up the dead money when they don't.

    As a rough guide. If you think it is 50-50 that they call, then your hand can give up no more equity if called than the value of the dead money if not called.

    It gets a bit more complicated if pay jumps are near, as the chips at the bottom of your stack which keep you in the tournament are worth more than the ones at the top.

    The other thing I would say is make sure to be consistent. You can't say they're going to call me with 66+ ATs+ AJo+ KQs and I expect to get called 70% of the time, because two players don't have that among themselves 70% of the time.

    You can try to guess based on what you would need to call. Don't worry if you are wrong. If you judge their call too loose and they call tighter then yes, they will have a stronger range than you expected, but on the other hand you will pick up the dead money more often than you expected.

    * this is just a number I guessed on the spot, you need to experiment with Equilab to get better numbers.

    Last edited by LektorAJ; 05-06-2015 at 09:01 AM.
    05-06-2015 , 10:58 AM
    Thanks very much for this. Really helpful!
    05-09-2015 , 01:58 PM
    OP you can shove much wider than this. At least 45% and probably closer to 50%. I would be shoving a range like 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K9o+ Q3s+ Q8o+ J4s+ J8o+ T5s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+

    So yeah if im shoving 76o here 109s is a fist pump shove.
    05-16-2015 , 04:08 PM
    I would do the same thing defintelly

          
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