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18Man - Interesting Situation 18Man - Interesting Situation

10-27-2015 , 03:50 PM
Pre final table
UTG+1 - Has been playing LAG
UTG+2 - No reads

Acording to poker tracker it says i need 30% equity to call and i figure i have that if UTG+1 has 88+, AQ+ and if UTG+2 has TT+, AK. I beleive this to be right let me know if you think i am off hear. However when i plug this into ICMizer using Clip Mode it says i should only be calling with QQ+. What do you think and how come the discrepancy since ICMizer has a way wider range for UTG+1 including 33 and A7!

PokerStars - $3.16+$0.34|80/160 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 5,542 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 5,252 (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 47)
Hero (UTG): 4,542
UTG+1: 3,856 (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 23.26, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 45)
MP: 3,780 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 2,970 (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 7.02, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 62)
BTN: 1,058 (VPIP: 14.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 41)

7 players post ante of 20, SB posts SB 80, BB posts BB 160

Pre Flop: (pot: 380) Hero has K A

Hero raises to 320, UTG+1 raises to 3,836 and is all-in, MP calls 3,760 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3,516

Flop: (11,812, 3 players) 4 8 5

Turn: (11,812, 3 players) K

River: (11,812, 3 players) Q
10-28-2015 , 04:40 AM
Happy to call UTG+1 shove if it were just him.
But when MP calls your UTG minr and a UTG+1 shove for ~25bb, I'm beginning to get suspicious. This is the FT and you still have a nice stack. AKo doesn't do that well multiway either.

I'd (sigh/nit) fold.
10-28-2015 , 05:05 AM
When you say this is pre-final table, you mean it is FT2 - i.e. there 13-15 people left? The stacks suggest this is the final table.

The ICMIZER result looks like an ICM influenced one and assumes this is final table. I don't play 18s but they are among the more ICM heavy ones as you get towards the bubble.

Based on chip EV it's probably a call, because you have odds pretty much always unless someone has AA (you need about 3 outs on average, you have 6 against two lower pairs or 5 against a weaker Ace and a lower pair.)

But based on ICM at final table, UTG+1 can shove wider with his fold equity, because ICM means that MP can only call with the best hands, that effect multiplies for someone overcalling as you are overcalling MP's tight range and you need to be significantly ahead of it due to ICM so that cuts it down to QQ+ (AK is very often narrowly ahead, but it doesn't smash ranges in the same way as the bigger pairs so ICM situations can often take it out of a calling range when we need to be significantly ahead of an already strong range).
10-29-2015 , 11:32 AM
Thank you Lek for that detailed response
11-01-2015 , 11:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Based on chip EV it's probably a call, because you have odds pretty much always unless someone has AA (you need about 3 outs on average, you have 6 against two lower pairs or 5 against a weaker Ace and a lower pair.)
Look at it like this: UTG+1 will have a LOT of Ax, so if you're going to do 3-way equity calculations, you probably need to do something similar to this...

There are three Aces left as far as you know. Given the portion of UTG+1's range includes all aces, you must assume that you have between about 2.4-2.6 Aces left in the deck.

Which will have you racing off your K against someone who just cold reshoved quite a few BB's for a 18. Given UTG+1's preponderance for Ax, you will also have to discount Ax from overshover's range.

So as deep a stack as you have, this is a fold. It isn't particularly close either. You will see/flip a lot and win enough races so that psychologically you can lock in those calls as intuitive.

It then becomes a leak that will be difficult to get rid of later.

Last edited by Kristofero; 11-01-2015 at 11:37 PM. Reason: also: w/turbo blinds, having a ~8k+ stack with 12 left is not enough +$EV. find a better spot.

      
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