So this spot came up in the $5.50 Win the Button game. 77 players left, bubble has long burst and I have 220k. Blinds are 4.5k/9k. I'm dealt AJh UTG and make it 19.7k.

Villian on Button who has 630k flats and who is 31/23 after 79 hands and is heavily involved in heaps of pots. BB also calls who is has 180k.

Flop comes 6s 7s 2h.

BB checks, I check, and villian bets 27k. BB folds and I elect to call.

Turn is a 3d.

I check and villian bets 67k. Again I elect to call

River is a Qd

So board is: 6s 7s 2h 3d Qd

I check and the villian jams.. I tank call and he rolls over A9 no draw.


Is this is a good call or am I just losing too often to make this profitable?

I should explain my thought process.. On the flop I felt that villian would bet most of his range there being in position, after my checking the flop being the initial raiser to take the pot down. If I had overpair etc I wouldn't likely check there.

On the turn I felt like nothing had really changed and if that I thought that if I was ahead on flop I still am now. There are lot of draws I'm ahead of and I still have two over cards. I figured if he had a set, he would bet a lot bigger on turn to try and get the money in especially as the board was drawy and he might think I have Ax of spades. The fact i didn't have any spades also made it more likely that he could.

On the river, again the Q doesn't change much, if he hit the Q i feel like he would check as he now has showdown value. The more I thought about it I felt like he had to have air and the only thing he plays like this is air.. He could have set, but as said, I feel like he would get it in on the turn. So i after timebanking I called and was happy with my read.

That's my thought process anyways, not sure if it's +EV, or if I just got lucky but that's how I broke the hand down..

Better parsing of the hand would be nice, to see pot sizes and stack sizes by each street.

On the flop I think your call is okay with 2 overs and a backdoor flush draw. On the turn and river it's a bit too loose IMO as from what I can tell you are basically committing your stack OOP with A high. If you have a good read on your opponent that he's capable of taking this line with air then it's not horrible.

Even though making these calls with A high feels great you're probably going to run into a lot more spots where they just had value or people are just value bluffing with some dumb hand you didn't think of. I've seen people take this line with like pocket 5s pocket 9s etc.

Yeah, you can't really justify calls like this without a strong read on a specific opponent. Otherwise his range will always include hands that beat you.

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This seems like more of a "look at my hero call" than a constructive post. Nice call though.

I find myself making a few of these calls and am right a good % of the time, but am not really looking to brag. Want to know really what the long term EV of calls like this are, Or does it not really apply, as they are so situation and read dependent?